IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pke/wpaper/pkwp2214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Towards an explanation of a declining trend in capacity utilisation in the US economy

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago J. Gahn

Abstract

In this paper I analyse a declining trend of effective capacity utilisation in the United States. After identifying determinants of normal capacity utilisation in the literature, I find that this declining trend of the FRB’s capacity utilisation is also present in the output-capital ratio of the NBER-CES sectoral database since 1958. Results suggest that permanent changes on technical change (K/L), distribution (W/Y ) and output have transitory effects on the output-capital ratio, my proxy of effective capacity utilisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago J. Gahn, 2022. "Towards an explanation of a declining trend in capacity utilisation in the US economy," Working Papers PKWP2214, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
  • Handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.postkeynesian.net/downloads/working-papers/PKWP2214.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Skott, 2012. "Theoretical And Empirical Shortcomings Of The Kaleckian Investment Function," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 109-138, February.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    4. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    5. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-580, June.
    6. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2019. "Normal utilization as the adjusting variable in Neo‐Kaleckian growth models: A critique," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 341-358, May.
    7. Lieberman, Marvin B., 1989. "Capacity utilization: Theoretical models and empirical tests," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 155-168, May.
    8. Peter Skott, 2016. "Aggregate demand, functional finance, and secular stagnation," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 172-188, September.
    9. Cynthia Bansak & Norman Morin & Martha Starr, 2007. "Technology, Capital Spending, And Capacity Utilization," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(3), pages 631-645, July.
    10. Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "Capital Utilization and Capital Accumulation: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 211-234, July.
    11. Michalis Nikiforos, 2018. "Some comments on the Sraffian Supermultiplier approach to growth and distribution," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 659-675, October.
    12. A. Michael Spence, 1977. "Entry, Capacity, Investment and Oligopolistic Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 534-544, Autumn.
    13. Michalis Nikiforos, 2013. "The (Normal) Rate of Capacity Utilization at the Firm Level," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 513-538, July.
    14. Maxwell, Philip, 1977. "Learning and technical change in the steelplant of Acindar, SA in Rosario, Argentina," Series Históricas 9616, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Levy, Daniel, 1995. "Capital Stock Depreciation, Tax Rules, and Composition of Aggregate Investment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 45-65.
    16. George L. Perry, 1973. "Capacity in Manufacturing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 701-742.
    17. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2017. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules in an Unstable Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 500-548, July.
    18. Wilson, Robert, 1992. "Strategic models of entry deterrence," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, in: R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 305-329, Elsevier.
    19. Nadiri, M Ishaq & Rosen, Sherwin, 1969. "Interrelated Factor Demand Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(4), pages 457-471, Part I Se.
    20. Lieberman, Marvin B, 1987. "Excess Capacity as a Barrier to Entry: An Empirical Appraisal," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 607-627, June.
    21. Johannes van Biesebroeck, 2003. "Productivity Dynamics with Technology Choice: An Application to Automobile Assembly," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(1), pages 167-198.
    22. Peter Skott & Soon Ryoo, 2017. "Functional finance and intergenerational distribution in neoclassical and Keynesian OLG models," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 112-134, January.
    23. Richard J. Giglio, 1970. "Stochastic Capacity Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 174-184, November.
    24. Merle Ederhof & Venky Nagar & Madhav Rajan, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Capacity Costs," Working Papers 17-26, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    25. Kurz,Heinz D. & Salvadori,Neri, 1997. "Theory of Production," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521588676.
    26. Santiago José Gahn, 2020. "Is There a Declining Trend in Capacity Utilization in the US Economy? A Technical Note," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 283-296, April.
    27. Peter Pedroni, 2013. "Structural Panel VARs," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-27, September.
    28. Michalis Nikiforos, 2021. "Notes on the accumulation and utilization of capital: Some empirical issues," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 679-695, November.
    29. Antonella Palumbo & Attilio Trezzini, 2003. "Growth without normal capacity utilization," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 109-135.
    30. Winston, Gordon C, 1974. "The Theory of Capital Utilization and Idleness," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1301-1320, December.
    31. Michalis Nikiforos, 2018. "Some Comments on the Sraffian Supermultiplier Approach to Growth and Distribution," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_907, Levy Economics Institute.
    32. Guilherme Haluska, 2020. "A critical evaluation of some Kaleckian proposals to deal with the issue of convergence towards normal capacity utilization," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 407-427, July.
    33. Mark Setterfield & Joana David Avritzer, 2020. "Hysteresis in the normal rate of capacity utilization: A behavioral explanation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 898-919, November.
    34. Kurz, Heinz D. & Salvadori, Neri, 1994. "Choice of technique in a model with fixed capital," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 545-569, October.
    35. Martin Boileau & Michel Normandin, 1999. "Capacity Utilization and the Dynamics of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 92, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    36. Esposito, Frances Ferguson & Esposito, Louis, 1974. "Excess Capacity and Market Structure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 56(2), pages 188-194, May.
    37. Santiago José Gahn & Alejandro González, 2022. "On the empirical content of the convergence debate: Cross‐country evidence on growth and capacity utilisation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 825-855, July.
    38. Brett Fiebiger, 2020. "Some observations on endogeneity in the normal rate of capacity utilisation," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 385-406, July.
    39. Gordon C. Winston & Thomas O. McCoy, 1974. "Investment and the Optimal Idleness of Capital," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(3), pages 419-428.
    40. Caves, Richard E & Jarrett, J Peter & Loucks, Michael K, 1979. "Competitive Conditions and the Firm's Buffer Stocks: An Exploratory Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(4), pages 485-496, November.
    41. George Stigler, 1939. "Production and Distribution in the Short Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(3), pages 305-305.
    42. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    43. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Biao Huang, 2020. "Normal utilization rate in the Sraffa framework," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 767-780, November.
    45. Foss, Murray F, 1981. "Long-Run Changes in the Workweek of Fixed Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 58-63, May.
    46. Anwar Shaikh, 2009. "Economic Policy In A Growth Context: A Classical Synthesis Of Keynes And Harrod," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 455-494, July.
    47. Skott, Peter, 1989. "Effective Demand, Class Struggle and Cyclical Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 231-247, February.
    48. Barbara S. Mann, 1984. "Capital Heterogeneity, Capital Utilization, and the Demand for Shiftworkers," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(3), pages 450-470, August.
    49. Ciaran Driver, 2000. "Capacity Utilisation and Excess Capacity: Theory, Evidence, and Policy," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 16(1), pages 69-87, February.
    50. Gahn, Santiago José, 2021. "On the adjustment of capacity utilisation to aggregate demand: Revisiting an old Sraffian critique to the Neo-Kaleckian model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 325-360.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gahn, Santiago José, 2021. "On the adjustment of capacity utilisation to aggregate demand: Revisiting an old Sraffian critique to the Neo-Kaleckian model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 325-360.
    2. Lorenzo Di Domenico, 2021. "Multiplicity and not necessarily heterogeneity: implications for the long-run degree of capacity utilization," Working Papers PKWP2116, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Santiago José Gahn & Alejandro González, 2022. "On the empirical content of the convergence debate: Cross‐country evidence on growth and capacity utilisation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 825-855, July.
    4. Santiago J. Gahn, 2020. "Is there a decreasing trend in capacity utilisation in the US economy? Some new evidence," Working Papers PKWP2006, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    5. Eckhard Hein, 2019. "Harrodian instability in Kaleckian models and Steindlian solutions," FMM Working Paper 46-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Michaelis Nikiforos, 2018. "Distribution-led growth through methodological lenses," FMM Working Paper 24-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Michalis Nikiforos, 2013. "The (Normal) Rate of Capacity Utilization at the Firm Level," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 513-538, July.
    8. Muhammad Nasir & Wasim Malik, 2011. "Structural Decomposition of Exchange Rate Shocks in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation using SVAR Methodology," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 124-138, September.
    9. Peter Skott, 2019. "Autonomous demand, Harrodian instability and the supply side," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 233-246, May.
    10. Di Domenico, Lorenzo, 2021. "Stability and determinants of the public debt-to-GDP ratio: an Input Output – Stock Flow Consistent approach," MPRA Paper 109970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bahareh Oryani & Yoonmo Koo & Shahabaldin Rezania, 2020. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach to Evaluate the Impact of Electricity Generation Mix on Economic Growth and CO 2 Emissions in Iran," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-16, August.
    12. Biao Huang, 2020. "Normal utilization rate in the Sraffa framework," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 767-780, November.
    13. Trezzini, Attilio & Pignalosa, Daria, 2021. "The Normal Degree of Capacity Utilization: The History of a Controversial Concept," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP49, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    14. Michalis Nikiforos, 2023. "Notes on the accumulation and utilization of capital: Some theoretical issues," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 223-247, February.
    15. Sudipto Sarkar, 2009. "A real-option rationale for investing in excess capacity," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 119-133.
    16. Michalis Nikiforos, 2011. "On the Desired Rate of Capacity Utilization," Working Papers 1116, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    17. Di Domenico, Lorenzo, 2021. "Stability and determinants of the public debt-to-GDP ratio: an Input Output – Stock Flow Consistent approach," MPRA Paper 110460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    19. Christian Schoder, 2012. "Effective demand, exogenous normal utilization and endogenous capacity in the long run. Evidence from a CVAR analysis for the US," IMK Working Paper 103-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capacity utilisation; technical change; income distribution; Panel Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jo Michell (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pksggea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.