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Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model

Author

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  • Itkonen, Juha
  • Juvonen, Petteri

Abstract

Timely and accurate assessment of current macroeconomic activity is crucial for policymakers and other economic agents. Nowcasting aims to forecast the current economic situation ahead of official data releases. We develop and apply a large Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model to nowcast quarterly GDP growth rate of the Finnish economy. We study the BVAR model’s out-of-sample performance at different forecasting horizons, and compare to various bridge models and a dynamic factor model.

Suggested Citation

  • Itkonen, Juha & Juvonen, Petteri, 2017. "Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model," BoF Economics Review 6/2017, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofecr:62017
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212991/1/bofer-2017-06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    8. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    9. Marta Bańbura & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Factor Models On Datasets With Arbitrary Pattern Of Missing Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 133-160, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anttonen, Jetro, 2018. "Nowcasting the Unemployment Rate in the EU with Seasonal BVAR and Google Search Data," ETLA Working Papers 62, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    3. Burcu Tunç & Burcu Çakmak & Cansu Gökçe Zeybek & Bruno Tissot, 2020. "Using financial accounts - a central banking perspective," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Using financial accounts, volume 51, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ennusteet; mallit; BVAR; Suomi; bkt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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