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Forecast combination in the frequency domain

Author

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  • Faria, Gonçalo
  • Verona, Fabio

Abstract

Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces markedly more accurate predictions relative to the standard forecast combination in the time domain, both in terms of statistical and economic measures of out-of-sample predictability. In a real-time forecasting exercise, the flexibility of this method allows to capture remarkably well the sudden and abrupt drops associated with recessions and further improve predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2023. "Forecast combination in the frequency domain," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2023, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:12023
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast combination; frequency domain; equity premium; GDP growth; Haar filter; wavelets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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