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The stable long-run CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns

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  • Kim, Jeong-Ryeol
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    Abstract

    The capital-asset-pricing model (CAPM) is one of the most popular methods of financial market analysis. But, evidence of the poor empirical performance of the CAPM has accumulated in the literature. For example, based on their empirical results regarding the relation between market Beta and average return, Fama and French (1996) conclude that the CAPM is no longer a useful tool for empirical financial market analysis. Most empirical studies of the conventional CAPM take, however, neither the fat-tails of return data nor the price relationship between an asset of interest and the bench market portfolio into account. In the framework of a univariate Beta-model we consider a stable long-run CAPM taking account of the fat-tails of stock returns and the common stochastic trends between stock prices. Using the same data used by Fama and French (1996), the stable long-run CAPM demonstrates that Markowitz rule of the expected returns and variance of returns can (still) -without any use of firm specific variables- explain the variation of the cross-sectional average returns. -- Das Capital-Asset-Pricing-Modell (CAPM) ist einer der populärsten empirischen Ansätze zur Analyse der Finanzmarktdaten. In der Literatur jedoch sind eher Gegenbeweise über seine empirische Tauglichkeit akkumuliert. Fama und French (1996) haben beispielsweise aufgrund ihrer empirischen Untersuchungsergebnisse über die Beziehung zwischen dem Markt-Beta und der Durchschnittsrendite schlussgefolgert, daß das CAPM keine nützliche Methode für empirische Finanzmarktanalyse mehr sein kann. Die meisten Arbeiten aber, die sich mit dem CAPM beschäftigen, berücksichtigen weder die ausreißerreiche empirische Renditenverteilung noch die Preisbeziehung zwischen dem einzelnen Kurs und dem Benchmark. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird im Rahmen univariater Beta-Modelle ein Versuch zur Spezifikation eines stabilen langfristigen CAPM gemacht, das sowohl die ausreißerreiche empirische Renditenverteilung als auch die Preisbeziehung zwischen dem einzelnen Kurs und dem Benchmark berücksichtigt. Mit dem Datensatz von Fama und French (1996) wird gezeigt, daß das stabile langfristige CAPM in der Lage ist, anhand der Markowitz?schen Mittelwert-Varianz-Regel ?ohne Hinzufügen firmspezifischer Variablen? die Variabilität durchschnittlicher Rendite in Querschnittsdaten zu erklären.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2002,05.

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    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4170

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    Related research

    Keywords: CAPM; Stable Paretian distribution; Sto chastic common trend;

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    Cited by:
    1. Upper, Christian & Werner, Thomas, 2002. "Time Variation in the Tail Behaviour of Bund Futures Returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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