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High- and Low-Frequency Correlations in European Government Bond Spreads and Their Macroeconomic Drivers

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  • Simona Boffelli
  • Vasiliki D. Skintzi
  • Giovanni Urga

Abstract

We propose to adopt high-frequency DCC-MIDAS models to estimate high- and low-frequency correlations in the 10-year government bond spreads for Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain relative to Germany, from June 1, 2007 to May 31, 2012. The high-frequency component, reflecting financial market conditions, is evaluated at 15-minute frequency, while the low-frequency component, fixed through a month, depends on country-specific macroeconomic conditions. We find strong links between spreads volatility and worsening macroeconomic fundamentals; in presence of similar macroeconomic fundamentals relative spreads move together; the increasing correlation in spreads during the burst of the sovereign debt crisis cannot be entirely ascribed to macroeconomic factors but rather to changes in market liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Simona Boffelli & Vasiliki D. Skintzi & Giovanni Urga, 2017. "High- and Low-Frequency Correlations in European Government Bond Spreads and Their Macroeconomic Drivers," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 62-105.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:62-105.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbv023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie, 2019. "Measuring connectedness of euro area sovereign risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44.
    2. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Regulatory changes and long-run relationships of the EMU sovereign debt markets: Implications for future policy framework," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Fang, Tong & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Su, Zhi, 2020. "Predicting the long-term stock market volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS model with variable selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 36-49.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    correlations; DECO; government bond spreads; high-frequency MIDAS models; macroeconomic variables; volatilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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