Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?
AbstractWe investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individualforecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction. Keywords: consensus forecast, model-based forecasts, long-run expectations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 954.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
consensus forecast ; model-based forecasts ; long-run expectations JEL Classification: C53 ; E37;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-01-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-01-03 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-01-03 (Macroeconomics)
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