The Oil Price-Microeconomy Relationship is Alive and Well
AbstractThis paper analyzes the oil price-macroeconomy relationship using a model that aims at taking into account all the sources of instability highlighted by previous studies. Mainly, we adopt a sectoral approach and weight oil prices by sectoral energy intensities. Further, inspired by Alfred Marshall's treatment of time, we also put forward a new approach to model short-term interactions between economic variables that relies on an error-correcting mechanism depending on cumulative errors. Applied to the U.S. economy, our model enables us to estimate stable relationships between oil prices and sectoral economic indicators. Further, it explains both the long-run weakening of the relationship between oil prices and aggregate economic activity and its short-run instability. We show that the oil price-macroeconomy relationship is fading but the oil price-microeconomy relationship is alive and well.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.
Volume (Year): Volume 32 (2011)
Issue (Month): Number 1 ()
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- F0 - International Economics - - General
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- Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Kai Carstensen & Steffen Elstner & Georg Paula, 2011. "How Strongly Did the 2007/08 Oil Price Hike Contribute to the Subsequent Recession?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3357, CESifo Group Munich.
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