Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sumru Altug

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Koc University, CEPR)

  • Cem Cakmakli

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Koc University, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set by the central banks of Brazil and Turkey with the predictions implied by the model in a statistically coherent way. Confronting these expectations with inflation targets leads to a statistical measure of the discrepancy between inflation expectations and the target inflation. The results indicate that inflation expectations are anchored more closely the inflation target set by the Central Bank for Brazil. By contrast, there is more evidence that inflation expectations deviate significantly from the target inflation set by the Central Bank for Turkey.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1413.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1413.

as in new window
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1413

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Rumelifeneri Yolu, Sarıyer, 34450 İstanbul
Phone: (90+212)-338-1302
Fax: (90+212)-338-1393
Email:
Web page: http://erf.ku.edu.tr
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Inflation targeting; survey-based inflation expectations; forecasting; state space model.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2002. "Inflation Dynamics and Subjective Expectations in the United States," CSEF Working Papers 78, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 02 Jun 2009.
  2. Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian Currency Turmoil of 2002: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Finance 0506001, EconWPA.
  3. Bennett T McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2001. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimising Agents and Sticky Prices," Discussion Papers 05, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  4. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  5. Harvey, A., 2008. "Modeling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0805, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2059-2094.
  7. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2008. "The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 6809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565 - 615.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  10. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  11. Siem Jan Koopman & Kai Ming Lee, 0000. "Seasonality with Trend and Cycle Interactions in Unobserved Components Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-028/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Sumru Altug & Erhan Uluceviz, 2014. "Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2014(1), pages 1-37.
  14. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy," IMF Working Papers 11/238, International Monetary Fund.
  15. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
  16. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Salih Fendoglu & Mustafa Kilinc, 2014. "Macroprudential Policies as Buffer Against Volatile Cross-border Capital Flows," Working Papers 1404, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  17. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, . "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 84656, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  18. John M. Roberts, 1994. "Is inflation sticky?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Some New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 491-503, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sumru Oz).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.