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Terrorism and tourism: A conjunction and ramification in Pakistan

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  • Raza, Syed Ali
  • Jawaid, Syed Tehseen

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of terrorism activities on tourism in Pakistan by using the annual time series data from the period of 1980 to 2010. Johansen and Jeuuselius and ARDL bound testing cointegration approach confirms the valid long run relationship between terrorism and tourism. Results indicate the significant negative impact of terrorism on tourism in the long run as well as in the short run. Results of rolling window estimation method indicate that terrorism having negative coefficients throughout the sample period. Results of dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) suggest that the results will remain the same in the future up to lead 2. Results of Granger causality test, Toda and Yamamoto Modified Wald causality test and variance decomposition test confirm the unidirectional causal relationship between terrorism and tourism, causality runs from terrorism to tourism. Hye and Khan (2012) confirm tourism led growth hypothesis for Pakistan. It is suggested that the government should play a significant role to reduce terrorism activities that should be decreased in the country to boost tourism activities that lead to increase in income from tourism in Pakistan.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 65-70

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:65-70

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Tourism; Time series analysis; Terrorism; Cointegration;

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References

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Ghali, Moheb A, 1976. " Tourism and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 527-38, April.
  4. Qazi Hye, 2012. "Long term effect of trade openness on economic growth in case of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1137-1149, June.
  5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
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  8. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
  9. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
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  11. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
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Cited by:
  1. Raza, Syed Ali & Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Afshan, Sahar, 2013. "Is Stock Market Sensitive to Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth? Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 48399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Wasim Qazi & Syed Raza & Syed Jawaid, 2014. "Higher education and growth performance of Pakistan: evidence from multivariate framework," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1651-1665, May.
  3. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2013. "Effects of terms of trade on growth performance of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 940-946.

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