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Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

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  • Christiane Baumeister

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Luca Benati

    (University of Bern)

Abstract

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 9 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 165-212

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2013:q:2:a:9

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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Quel est l’efficacité de l’assouplissement quantitatif ?
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-01 12:19:00
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Cited by:
  1. Arias, Jonas E. & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F. & Waggoner, Daniel F., 2014. "Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," International Finance Discussion Papers 1100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing," Working Paper Series 37_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. João Barata R. B. Barroso & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva & Adriana Soares Sales, 2013. "Quantitative Easing and Related Capital Flows into Brazil: measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Working Papers Series 313, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Blaise Gadanecz & Ken Miyajima & Jörg Urban, 2014. "How might EME central banks respond to the influence of global monetary factors?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 45-69 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Annette Meinusch & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201426, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  6. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201224, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Alex Haberis & Andrej Sokol, 2014. "A procedure for combining zero and sign restrictions in a VAR-identification scheme," Discussion Papers 1410, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  8. Kühl, Michael, 2014. "Mitigating financial stress in a bank-financed economy: Equity injections into banks or purchases of assets?," Discussion Papers 19/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2014. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 20117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2014. "Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany," MPRA Paper 57223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  12. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2014. "Latin American Performance to External Shocks: What Has Really Been Sweat?," MPRA Paper 57816, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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