The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment
AbstractThis paper reviews alternative options for monetary policy when the short-term interest rate is at the zero lower bound and develops new empirical estimates of the effects of the maturity structure of publicly held debt on the term structure of interest rates. We use a model of risk-averse arbitrageurs to develop measures of how the maturity structure of debt held by the public might affect the pricing of level, slope and curvature term-structure risk. We find these Treasury factors historically were quite helpful for predicting both yields and excess returns over 1990-2007. The historical correlations are consistent with the claim that if in December of 2006, the Fed were to have sold off all its Treasury holdings of less than one-year maturity (about $400 billion) and use the proceeds to retire Treasury debt from the long end, this might have resulted in a 14-basis-point drop in the 10-year rate and an 11-basis-point increase in the 6-month rate. We also develop a description of how the dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates changed after hitting the zero lower bound in 2009. Our estimates imply that at the zero lower bound, such a maturity swap would have the same effects as buying $400 billion in long-term maturities outright with newly created reserves, and could reduce the 10-year rate by 13 basis points without raising short-term yields.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16956.
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Note: AP ME PE
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Other versions of this item:
- James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-04-23 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-23 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-23 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-04-23 (Monetary Economics)
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen: Perspectives on Monetary Policy
by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2012-06-07 11:05:32
- Full text: Janet Yellen â Perspectives on Monetary Policy
by Guest Author in Credit Writedowns on 2012-06-07 13:10:28
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