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Public support for the single European currency, the euro, 1990 to 2011. Does the financial crisis matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D.
  • Felix Roth (CEPS, Brussels)
  • Lars Lonung (university of Lund, Sweden)

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of public support for the single European currency, the euro, from 1990 to 2011, focusing on the most recent period of financial and sovereign debt crisis. Exploring a huge database of more than half a million observations covering the 12 original euro area member countries, we find that the ongoing crisis has only marginally reduced citizens’ support for the euro. To determine support for the euro we use two data sets: (1) panel data (bi-annual) to model the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the support for the euro (Dynamic Feasible Generalized Least Squares (DFGLS) estimation) and (2) household data to model the micoeconomic impact of the macro environment and its perception on the support for the euro (probit analysis). Our finding of a only marginally reduced citizens' support for the euro during the financial crisis is in stark contrast to a sharp fall in public trust in the European Central Bank. We conclude that the crisis – at least so far - has hardly dented popular support for the euro while the central bank supplying the single currency has lost sharply in public trust. Thus, the euro appears to have established a credibility of its own – separate from the institutional framework behind the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Felix Roth (CEPS, Brussels) & Lars Lonung (university of Lund, Sweden), 2013. "Public support for the single European currency, the euro, 1990 to 2011. Does the financial crisis matter?," EcoMod2013 5160, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:004912:5160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars Jonung, 2002. "EMU and the Euro - The First Ten Years. Challenges to the sustainability and price stability of the euro area - what does history tell us?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 46, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    2. Felix Roth, 2022. "The Effect of the Financial Crisis on Systemic Trust," Contributions to Economics, in: Public Support for the Euro, chapter 0, pages 219-229, Springer.
    3. Lars Jonung, 2002. "EMU and the euro - the first 10 years. Challenges to the sustainability and price stability of the euro area - what does history tell us?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 165, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Roth, Felix & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Otter, Thomas, 2011. "Has the financial crisis shattered citizens� trust in national and European governmental institutions? Evidence from the EU member states, 1999-2010," CEPS Papers 4159, Centre for European Policy Studies.
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    9. Erik Jones, 2009. "Output Legitimacy and the Global Financial Crisis: Perceptions Matter," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47, pages 1085-1105, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klodiana Istrefi & Anamaria Piloiu, 2013. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Trust and Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4294, CESifo.
    2. Elisabeth Beckmann & Sandra Dvorsky & Thomas Scheiber, 2013. "Trust in the EU in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 77-90.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro zone countries; Impact and scenario analysis; EU enlargement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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