Forecasting performance of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007-2009
AbstractIn this work we consider forecasting macroeconomic variables dur- ing an economic crisis. The focus is on a specific class of models, the so-called single hidden-layer feedforward autoregressive neural net- work models. What makes these models interesting in the present context is that they form a class of universal approximators and may be expected to work well during exceptional periods such as major economic crises. These models are often difficult to estimate, and we follow the idea of White (2006) to transform the speci?fication and non- linear estimation problem into a linear model selection and estimation problem. To this end we employ three automatic modelling devices. One of them is White's QuickNet, but we also consider Autometrics, well known to time series econometricians, and the Marginal Bridge Estimator, better known to statisticians and microeconometricians. The performance of these three model selectors is compared by look- ing at the accuracy of the forecasts of the estimated neural network models. We apply the neural network model and the three modelling techniques to monthly industrial production and unemployment se- ries of the G7 countries and the four Scandinavian ones, and focus on forecasting during the economic crisis 2007-2009. Forecast accuracy is measured by the root mean square forecast error. Hypothesis testing is also used to compare the performance of the different techniques with each other.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2011-28.
Date of creation: 26 Aug 2011
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Autometrics; economic forecasting; Marginal Bridge estimator; neural network; nonlinear time series model; Wilcoxon's signed-rank test;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-09-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-09-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CMP-2011-09-16 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ECM-2011-09-16 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2011-09-16 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2011-09-16 (Forecasting)
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