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A monetary policy strategy in good and bad times: lessons from the recent past

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Abstract

We evaluate the ECB’s monetary policy strategy against the underlying economic structure of the euro area economy, in normal times and in times of severe financial dislocations. We show that in the years preceding the financial crisis that started in 2007 the strategy was successful at ensuring macroeconomic stability and steady growth despite shocks to the supply side and to the transmission mechanism which complicated the policy process. Emphasis on monetary indicators in the ECB’s monetary policy strategy – the monetary pillar – was instrumental in avoiding more volatile and less predictable patterns of inflation and growth. After the collapse of financial intermediation in late 2008, the strategy of the ECB was to preserve the integrity of the monetary policy transmission mechanism by adopting a comprehensive package of non-standard policy measures. According to our quantitative evaluation of the impact of the non-standard policy package, which notably did not include entering commitments regarding the future path of the policy rate, the liquidity interventions decided in October 2008 and in May 2009 were critical to preserving price stability and forestalling a more disruptive collapse of the macro-economy. JEL Classification: E31, E44, E51, E58.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1336.

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Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111336

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Keywords: Monetary Policy; Monetary transmission; Credit; Supply factors; Financial crisis; Non-standard policy measures.;

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  1. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2003. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  2. Casper van Ewijk & C. Santing, 2010. "A meta-analysis of the equity premium," CPB Discussion Paper 156, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Inflation risk premia in the term structure of interest rates," BIS Working Papers 228, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Jiminez, G. & Ongena, S. & Saurina, J., 2007. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?," Discussion Paper 2007-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Otmar Issing, 2011. "Lessons for monetary policy: what should the consensus be?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 81, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Otmar Issing, 2011. "Lessons for Monetary Policy: What Should the Consensus Be?," IMF Working Papers 11/97, International Monetary Fund.

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