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Limitations on the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound

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  • Levin, Andrew
  • López-Salido, J David
  • Nelson, Edward
  • Yun, Tack

Abstract

The recent literature on monetary policy in the presence of a zero lower bound on interest rates has shown that forward guidance regarding the path of interest rates can be very effective in preserving macroeconomic stability in the face of a contractionary demand shock; moreover, that literature apparently leaves little scope for any further improvements in stabilization performance via nontraditional monetary policies. In this paper, we characterize optimal policy under commitment in a prototypical New Keynesian model and examine whether those conclusions are sensitive to the specification of the shock process and to the interest elasticity of aggregate demand. Although forward guidance is effective in offsetting natural rate shocks of moderate size and persistence, we find that the macroeconomic outcomes are much less appealing for larger and more persistent shocks, especially when the interest elasticity parameter is set to values widely used in the literature. Thus, while forward guidance could be sufficient for mitigating the effects of a 'Great Moderation'-style shock, a combination of forward guidance and other monetary policy measures - such as large-scale asset purchases - might well be called for in responding to a 'Great Recession'-style shock.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7581.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7581

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Keywords: Forward Guidance; Optimal Policy under Commitment; Zero Lower Bound;

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References

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  1. Michael Woodford & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2004. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," 2004 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation of Optimal Policy Problems," Discussion Papers 0809-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  4. Anton Nakov, 2008. "Optimal and Simple Monetary Policy Rules with Zero Floor on the Nominal Interest Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 73-127, June.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 81-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
  8. Volker Wieland & Gunter Coenen, 2003. "The Zero-Interest-Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 138, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Winfield W. Riefler, 1958. "Open market operations in long-term securities," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Nov, pages 1260-1274.
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  11. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
  12. Tomohiro Sugo & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "The Zero Interest Rate Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  13. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2007. "Linear-quadratic approximation, external habit and targeting rules," Working Paper Series 759, European Central Bank.
  14. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  15. Alexander L. Wolman, 1998. "Staggered price setting and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-24.
  16. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Estimation and control of an optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1181-1215, May.
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  1. > Macroeconomics > Monetary Theory
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Stabilization Policy," Discussion Papers 0910-18, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  2. Kozo Ueda, 2010. "A Time-Invariant Duration Policy under the Zero Lower Bound," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. Stephan Fahr & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Frank Smets & Oreste Tristani, 2011. "A monetary policy strategy in good and bad times: lessons from the recent past," Working Paper Series 1336, European Central Bank.
  4. Carlstrom, Charles & Fuerst, Timothy & Paustian, Matthias, 2012. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Bank of England working papers 459, Bank of England.
  5. Jouchi Nakajima & Shigenori Shiratsuka & Yuki Teranishi, 2010. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Commitment: Evidence from Time- varying Parameter VAR Analysis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  6. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk under inflation and price-level targeting," Working Papers 2013_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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