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Exchange-Rate Regimes, Political Parties and the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff: Evidence from Greece

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  • George Alogoskoufis
  • Dong-Ho Lee
  • Apostolis Philippopoulos

    ()

Abstract

We use Greek data during 1960–1994 to test and estimate a model in which wage inflation, price inflation and unemployment depend on the exchange rate regime, the identity of the political party in power and whether an election is expected to take place. We respect the Lucas critique and take into account the statistical properties of the data. The main results are: (i) The exchange rate regime matters for inflation. After the fall of the Bretton Woods regime in 1972, there is a Barro-Gordon type inflation bias due to the inability of all policymakers to precommit to low inflation. (ii) There are no Barro-Gordon type partisan differences in inflation or unemployment. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 9 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 39-51

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:9:y:1998:i:1:p:39-51

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

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Keywords: exchange rates; inflation; political business cycles; unit roots;

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References

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  1. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
  2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1991. "The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 303-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sachs, Jeffrey & Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984," Scholarly Articles 4553026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Horn, Henrik & Persson, Torsten, 1988. "Exchange rate policy, wage formation and credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1621-1636, October.
  5. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Garfinkel, Michelle R & Glazer, Amihai, 1994. "Does Electoral Uncertainty Cause Economic Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 169-73, May.
  7. Coles, Melvyn & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 1997. "Are exchange rate bands better than fixed exchange rates? The imported credibility approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 133-153, August.
  8. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May.
  9. Alogoskoufis, George S & Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 1992. "Wage Inflation, Electoral Uncertainty and the Exchange Rate Regime: Theory and UK Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1370-94, November.
  10. Cukierman, Alex, 1994. "Central Bank Independence and Monetary Control," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1437-48, November.
  11. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
  12. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Constantina Kottaridi & Diego MŽndez-Carbajo, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics and the Cross-Sectional Distribution of Prices in the E.U. Periphery," Working Paper Series 43-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.

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