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Forecasting with many predictors - Is boosting a viable alternative?

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  • Buchen, Teresa
  • Wohlrabe, Klaus

Abstract

This paper evaluates the forecast performance of boosting, a variable selection device, and compares it with the forecast combination schemes and dynamic factor models presented in Stock and Watson (2006). Using the same data set and comparison methodology, we find that boosting is a serious competitor for forecasting US industrial production growth in the short run and that it performs best in the longer run.

Suggested Citation

  • Buchen, Teresa & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2010. "Forecasting with many predictors - Is boosting a viable alternative?," Discussion Papers in Economics 11788, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:11788
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    File URL: https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11788/1/masterfile_boosting.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shafik, Nivien & Tutz, Gerhard, 2009. "Boosting nonlinear additive autoregressive time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 2453-2464, May.
    2. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    3. Capistrán, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
    4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 515-554, Elsevier.
    5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2009. "Boosting diffusion indices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 607-629.
    6. Buhlmann P. & Yu B., 2003. "Boosting With the L2 Loss: Regression and Classification," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 324-339, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Wohlrabe & Teresa Buchen, 2014. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting: Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area and Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 231-242, July.
    2. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2017. "Boosting and regional economic forecasting: the case of Germany," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 161-175, July.
    4. R. Lehmann & K. Wohlrabe, 2016. "Looking into the black box of boosting: the case of Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1229-1233, November.
    5. Daniel Borup & Erik Christian Montes Schütte, 2022. "In Search of a Job: Forecasting Employment Growth Using Google Trends," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 186-200, January.
    6. Götz, Thomas B. & Knetsch, Thomas A., 2019. "Google data in bridge equation models for German GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-66.
    7. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Papailias, Fotis, 2016. "Forecasting inflation and GDP growth using heuristic optimisation of information criteria and variable reduction methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 369-382.
    8. Fang, Ming & Taylor, Stephen, 2021. "A machine learning based asset pricing factor model comparison on anomaly portfolios," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    9. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    10. Shahram Fattahi & Kiomars Sohaili & Hamed Monkaresi & Fatemeh Mehrabi, 2017. "Modelling and Forecasting Recessions in Oil-exporting Countries: The Case of Iran," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 569-574.
    11. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents' expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," IREA Working Papers 201511, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2015.
    12. Souhaib Ben Taieb & Rob J Hyndman, 2014. "Boosting multi-step autoregressive forecasts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    13. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.
    14. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2016. "Boosting and Forecasting German Industrial Output: What Does a Closer Look at the Details Tell Us?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(03), pages 30-33, February.
    15. Christian Pierdzioch & Marian Risse & Sebastian Rohloff, 2016. "A boosting approach to forecasting gold and silver returns: economic and statistical forecast evaluation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 347-352, March.
    16. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić, 2015. "A note on forecasting euro area inflation: leave- $$h$$ h -out cross validation combination as an alternative to model selection," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 23(1), pages 205-214, March.
    17. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
    18. Zeng, Jing, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does boosting help to select the most informative predictors?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Jing Zeng, 2014. "Forecasting Aggregates with Disaggregate Variables: Does Boosting Help to Select the Most Relevant Predictors?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-20, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    20. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions in Germany With Boosted Regression Trees," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201505, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    21. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2017. "Boosting and regional economic forecasting: the case of Germany," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 161-175, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Boosting; Cross-validation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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