Forecasting with many predictors - Is boosting a viable alternative?
AbstractThis paper evaluates the forecast performance of boosting, a variable selection device, and compares it with the forecast combination schemes and dynamic factor models presented in Stock and Watson (2006). Using the same data set and comparison methodology, we find that boosting is a serious competitor for forecasting US industrial production growth in the short run and that it performs best in the longer run.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 11788.
Date of creation: 06 Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Forecasting; Boosting; Cross-validation;
Other versions of this item:
- Buchen, Teresa & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2011. "Forecasting with many predictors: Is boosting a viable alternative?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 16-18, October.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2010-10-16 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2010-10-16 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2010-10-16 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2009. "Boosting diffusion indices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 607-629.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlos CapistrÃ¡n & Allan Timmermann, 2010.
CREATES Research Papers
2010-21, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," Working Papers 2010-04, Banco de México.
- Timmermann, Allan G, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Shafik, Nivien & Tutz, Gerhard, 2009. "Boosting nonlinear additive autoregressive time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 2453-2464, May.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier.
- Klaus Wohlrabe & Teresa Buchen, 2014.
"Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting: Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area and Germany,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 231-242, 07.
- Teresa Buchen & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 4148, CESifo Group Munich.
- Souhaib Ben Taieb & Rob J Hyndman, 2014. "Boosting multi-step autoregressive forecasts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics 13/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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