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A lány továbbra is szolgál..
[Modelling and econometrics]

Author

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  • Kőrösi, Gábor

Abstract

Mellár Tamás közelmúltbeli cikkében az empirikus makrogazdaságtan vélt vagy valós problémáiért, az elmúlt évek hibásnak bizonyult makrogazdasági előrejelzéseiért egyedül az ökonometriában találta meg a felelőst. Nem mehetek el szó nélkül e túlzó állítás mellett. Az empirikus makrogazdaságtan és az ökonometriai módszertan kapcsolatának néhány fontos kérdéséről írok, különös tekintettel az aggregált idősorok használatának problémáira. Felvázolom, hogy miért nincs értelme gazdasági idősorok trendbecslésének, kitérek az egyensúlyi modellekre, végül megmutatom az előrejelzések készítésének feltételeit és korlátait.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C01, C5, E17, E32, E37.

Suggested Citation

  • Kőrösi, Gábor, 2016. "A lány továbbra is szolgál.. [Modelling and econometrics]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 647-667.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1636
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2016.6.647
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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