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Az adóköteles jövedelem rugalmassága. Becslés és egy egykulcsos adórendszerre vonatkozó számítás a 2005. évi magyar adóváltozások alapján
[The elasticity of taxable income: estimates and flat-tax predictions using the Hungarian tax changes in 2005]

Author

Listed:
  • Benczúr, Péter
  • Benedek, Dóra
  • Bakos, Péter

Abstract

Az elmúlt évek során számos közép-kelet-európai ország vezetett be egykulcsos adórendszert gazdasága élénkítésére és adóbevételei növelésére. Bár úgy tűnik, hogy egyes országoknak sikerül a kettőt egyszerre megvalósítaniuk, általában nehéz egymástól szétválasztani az adózásbeli változások által kiváltott viselkedési reakciókat és a szigorúbb adóbehajtás hatásait. Tanulmányunk ezt a hiányt kívánja pótolni a magyarországi adóköteles jövedelmek rugalmasságának becslésével. Erre a 2005. évi személyi jövedelemadózás változásai adnak lehetőséget, mert ebben az esetben az adókulcsok változása nem járt az adóbehajtás szigorodásával. Vizsgálatunkhoz az APEH kétéves (2004., illetve 2005. évi), körülbelül 215 ezer adófizetőre vonatkozó panel-adatállományát használjuk fel. Eredményeink azt mutatják, hogy az éves minimálbérnél magasabb jövedelműek (az adófizetők körülbelül 70 százaléka) esetében viszonylag kicsi, körülbelül 0,06, de erősen szignifikáns adóár-rugalmasság tapasztalható. Ez a szám mintegy 0,3-re nő, ha a jövedelemeloszlás felső 20 százalékos sávját vizsgáljuk, sőt egyes jövedelemcsoportok még ennél is magasabb (0,45) elasztikusságot mutatnak. Először megmutatjuk, hogy egy ilyen mértékű rugalmasság alapvetően módosítja a költségvetési bevételek alakulását a 2004-2005. évi adóváltozások nyomán, majd számszerűsítjük egy hipotetikus egykulcsos adórendszer bevezetésének hatásait. Számításaink azt mutatják, hogy lehetséges a költségvetési bevételek és az adóköteles jövedelmek párhuzamos növelése (az előbbi körülbelül 2 százalékkal, az utóbbi 1,4 százalékkal nő), ugyanakkor egy ilyen reform jelentősen növeli a jövedelmi egyenlőtlenségeket, és terhét főként a közepes jövedelmű adófizetők viselik. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: H24, H31.

Suggested Citation

  • Benczúr, Péter & Benedek, Dóra & Bakos, Péter, 2008. "Az adóköteles jövedelem rugalmassága. Becslés és egy egykulcsos adórendszerre vonatkozó számítás a 2005. évi magyar adóváltozások alapján [The elasticity of taxable income: estimates and flat-tax p," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 733-762.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Varga, Gergely & Nobilis, Benedek & Svraka, András, 2018. "Adóköteles jövedelmek rugalmassága – egy identifikációs kísérlet a családi adókedvezmény 2011-es bevezetése alapján [Elasticity of Taxable Income: An Experiment for Identification Based on the Intr," Taxation Working Papers 3, Ministry of Finance, Department of Tax Policy and International Taxation.
    2. Elek, Péter & Lőrincz, László, 2015. "Az effektív társasági adókulcs rugalmassága Magyarországon a 2009-2011 közötti adókulcscsökkentés alapján [The elasticity of the effective corporate tax rate in Hungary: evidence from the tax cut b," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 27-47.
    3. Kőrösi, Gábor, 2016. "A lány továbbra is szolgál.. [Modelling and econometrics]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 647-667.
    4. Benedek, Dóra & Kiss, Áron, 2011. "Mikroszimulációs elemzés a személyi jövedelemadó módosításainak hatásvizsgálatában [Micro-simulation analysis in examination of the effects of personal income-tax changes]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 97-110.
    5. Simonovits, András, 2011. "Rászorultsági vagy alapnyugdíj? Nyugdíjjóváírás? [Means-tested or flat pension? Pension credit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 301-313.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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