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Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Micro Estimates of Tax Evasion Response and Welfare Effects in Russia

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Author Info
Yuriy Gorodnichenko () (University of California, Berkeley, NBER and IZA)
Jorge Martinez-Vazquez () (Georgia State University)
Klara Sabirianova Peter () (Georgia State University and IZA)

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Abstract

Using micro-level data, we examine the effects of Russia’s 2001 flat rate income tax reform on consumption, income, and tax evasion. We use the gap between household expenditures and reported earnings as a proxy for tax evasion with data from a household panel for 1998- 2004. Utilizing difference-in-difference and regression-discontinuity-type approaches, we find that large and significant changes in tax evasion following the flat tax reform are associated with changes in voluntary compliance and cannot be explained by changes in tax enforcement policies. We also find the productivity response of taxpayers to the flat tax reform is small relative to the tax evasion response. Finally, we develop a feasible framework to assess the deadweight loss from personal income tax in the presence of tax evasion based on the consumption response to tax changes. We show that because of the strong tax evasion response the efficiency gain from the Russian flat tax reform is at least 30% smaller than the gain implied by conventional approaches.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3267.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3267

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Related research
Keywords: tax evasion; consumption-income gap; personal income tax; flat tax; difference-indifference; regression discontinuity; deadweight loss; transition; Russia;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  5. Anna Ivanova & Michael Keen & Alexander Klemm, 2005. "The Russian 'flat tax' reform," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 20(43), pages 397-444, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Tax Avoidance And The Deadweight Loss Of The Income Tax," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 674-680, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gerald Auten & Robert Carroll, 1999. "The Effect Of Income Taxes On Household Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 681-693, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Gruber, Jon & Saez, Emmanuel, 2002. "The elasticity of taxable income: evidence and implications," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-32, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The Benefits of Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 3715, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Duncan, Denvil & Sabirianova Peter, Klara, 2009. "Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 4257, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:ese:iserwp: is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Sabirianova Peter, Klara & Buttrick, Steve & Duncan, Denvil, 2009. "Global Reform of Personal Income Taxation, 1981-2005: Evidence from 189 Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 4228, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Karsten Staehr, 2008. "Estimates of employment and welfare effects of personal labour income taxation in a flat-tax country : The case of Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
  6. Peichl, Andreas & Paulus, Alari, 2007. "Effects of flat tax reforms in Western Europe on equity and efficiency," FiFo-CPE Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-4, University of Cologne, CPE - Cologne Center for Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Paulus, Alari & Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "Effects of Flat Tax Reforms in Western Europe on Income Distribution and Work Incentives," IZA Discussion Papers 3721, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Denvil Duncan & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2009. "Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0906, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lev Freinkman & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Ulrich Thießen, 2009. "Incentive Effects of Fiscal Equalization: Has Russian Style Improved?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 912, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2008. "Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 620-636, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Klara Sabirianova Peter & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2009. "Inequality and Volatility Moderation in Russia: Evidence from Micro-Level Panel Data on Consumption and Income," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0905, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
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