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Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Micro Estimates of Tax Evasion Response and Welfare Effects in Russia

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Author Info
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Jorge Martinez-Vazquez
Klara Sabirianova Peter

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Abstract

Using micro-level data, we examine the effects of Russia's 2001 flat rate income tax reform on consumption, income, and tax evasion. We use the gap between household expenditures and reported earnings as a proxy for tax evasion with data from a household panel for 1998-2004. Utilizing difference-in-difference and regression-discontinuity-type approaches, we find that large and significant changes in tax evasion following the flat tax reform are associated with changes in voluntary compliance and cannot be explained by changes in tax enforcement policies. We also find the productivity response of taxpayers to the flat tax reform is small relative to the tax evasion response. Finally, we develop a feasible framework to assess the deadweight loss from personal income tax in the presence of tax evasion based on the consumption response to tax changes. We show that because of the strong tax evasion response the efficiency gain from the Russian flat tax reform is at least 30% smaller than the gain implied by conventional approaches.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13719.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13719

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion
J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The Benefits of Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 3715, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Sabirianova Peter, Klara & Stolyarov, Dmitriy, 2009. "Inequality and Volatility Moderation in Russia: Evidence from Micro-Level Panel Data on Consumption and Income," IZA Discussion Papers 4233, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Emmanuel Saez & Joel B. Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2009. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 15012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. repec:ese:iserwp: is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Sabirianova Peter, Klara & Buttrick, Steve & Duncan, Denvil, 2009. "Global Reform of Personal Income Taxation, 1981-2005: Evidence from 189 Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 4228, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Karsten Staehr, 2008. "Estimates of employment and welfare effects of personal labour income taxation in a flat-tax country : The case of Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peichl, Andreas & Paulus, Alari, 2007. "Effects of flat tax reforms in Western Europe on equity and efficiency," FiFo-CPE Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-4, University of Cologne, CPE - Cologne Center for Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models: Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," SOEPpapers 182, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). [Downloadable!]
  9. Lev Freinkman & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Ulrich Thießen, 2009. "Incentive Effects of Fiscal Equalization: Has Russian Style Improved?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 912, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2008. "Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 620-636, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Duncan, Denvil & Sabirianova Peter, Klara, 2009. "Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 4257, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Paulus, Alari & Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "Effects of Flat Tax Reforms in Western Europe on Income Distribution and Work Incentives," IZA Discussion Papers 3721, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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