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Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Micro Estimates of Tax Evasion Response and Welfare Effects in Russia

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Author Info
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Jorge Martinez-Vazquez () (International Studies Program. Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University)
Klara Sabirianova Peter () (Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University)

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Abstract

Using micro-level data, we examine the effects of Russia’s 2001 flat rate income tax reform on consumption, income, and tax evasion. We use the gap between household expenditures and reported earnings as a proxy for tax evasion with data from a household panel for 1998-2004. Utilizing difference-in-difference and regression-discontinuity-type approaches, we find that large and significant changes in tax evasion following the flat tax reform are associated with changes in voluntary compliance and cannot be explained by changes in tax enforcement policies. We also find the productivity response of taxpayers to the flat tax reform is small relative to the tax evasion response. Finally, we develop a feasible framework to assess the deadweight loss from personal income tax in the presence of tax evasion based on the consumption response to tax changes. We show that because of the strong tax evasion response the efficiency gain from the Russian flat tax reform is at least 30% smaller than the gain implied by conventional approaches.

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Paper provided by International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University in its series International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU with number paper0720.

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Length: 68 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0720

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Keywords: tax evasion; consumption-income gap; personal income tax; flat tax; difference-in-difference; regression discontinuity; deadweight loss; transition; Russia.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Mark Rider, 2003. "Multiple Modes of Tax Evasion: Theory and Evidence from the TCMP," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0306, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. James Andreoni & Brian Erard & Jonathan Feinstein, 1998. "Tax Compliance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 818-860, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Mark Rider & Riatu Qibthiyyah & Sally Wallace, 2006. "Who Bears the Burden of Taxes on Labor Income in Russia?," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0621, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Slemrod, Joel & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 2002. "Tax avoidance, evasion, and administration," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1423-1470 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karsten Staehr, 2008. "Estimates of employment and welfare effects of personal labour income taxation in a flat-tax country : The case of Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The Benefits of Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 3715, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Denvil Duncan & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2009. "Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0906, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paulus, Alari & Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "Effects of Flat Tax Reforms in Western Europe on Income Distribution and Work Incentives," IZA Discussion Papers 3721, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Paulus A & Peichl A, 2008. "Effects Of Flat Tax Reforms In Western Europe On Equity And Efficiency," EUROMOD Working Papers EM2/08, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Sabirianova Peter, Klara & Buttrick, Steve & Duncan, Denvil, 2009. "Global Reform of Personal Income Taxation, 1981-2005: Evidence from 189 Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 4228, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Lev Freinkman & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Ulrich Thießen, 2009. "Incentive Effects of Fiscal Equalization: Has Russian Style Improved?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 912, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Klara Sabirianova Peter & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2009. "Inequality and Volatility Moderation in Russia: Evidence from Micro-Level Panel Data on Consumption and Income," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0905, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2008. "Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 620-636, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Duncan, Denvil & Sabirianova Peter, Klara, 2009. "Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 4257, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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