Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Determinants of China’s Energy Imports: An Empirical Analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Xingjun Zhao

    (Department of International Economics and Trade, Nankai University, PR China)

  • Yanrui Wu

    ()
    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

Abstract

Sustained economic growth in China has triggered a surge of energy imports, especially oil imports. This paper investigates the determinants of China’s energy import demand by using cointegraiton and VECM techniques. The findings suggest that, in the long run, growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect China’s oil imports, while domestic energy output has a substitution effect. Thus, as the Chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands, China’s oil imports are likely to increase. Though China’s domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports, its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs. It is anticipated that China will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.biz.uwa.edu.au/home/research/discussionworking_papers/economics?f=154235
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 07-03.

as in new window
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: forthcoming in Energy Policy
Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:07-03

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, W.A. 6009
Phone: (08) 9380 2918
Fax: (08) 9380 1016
Web page: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/school/disciplines/economics
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Energy consumption; energy imports; China and VECM;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
  2. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2003. "Why did the energy intensity fall in China's industrial sector in the 1990s? The relative importance of structural change and intensity change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 625-638, November.
  3. Zou, Gaolu & Chau, K.W., 2006. "Short- and long-run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3644-3655, December.
  4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
  6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  10. von Hirschhausen, Christian & Andres, Michael, 2000. "Long-term electricity demand in China -- From quantitative to qualitative growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 231-241, April.
  11. Skeer, Jeffrey & Wang, Yanjia, 2007. "China on the move: Oil price explosion?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 678-691, January.
  12. Paul Crompton & Yanrui Wu, 2004. "Energy Consumption in China: Past Trends and Future Directions," Economics Discussion / Working Papers, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics 04-22, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  14. Wu, Yanrui, 2003. "Deregulation and growth in China's energy sector: a review of recent development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(13), pages 1417-1425, October.
  15. Lin Chan, Hing & Kam Lee, Shu, 1997. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for coal in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 271-287, July.
  16. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers, Helsinki - Department of Economics 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  17. Skeer, Jeffrey & Wang, Yanjia, 2006. "Carbon charges and natural gas use in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2251-2262, October.
  18. Hing Lin Chan & Shu Kam Lee, 1996. "Forecasting the Demand for Energy in China," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-30.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Camacho-Gutiérrez, Pablo, 2010. "Dynamic OLS estimation of the U.S. import demand for Mexican crude oil," MPRA Paper 30608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hengyun Ma & Les Oxley & John Gibson, 2009. "China’s Energy Situation and Its Implications in the New Millennium," Working Papers in Economics 09/01, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  3. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan, 2010. "Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3943-3956, August.
  4. Li, Hong & Xiaowen Lin, Sharon, 2011. "Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4624-4630, August.
  5. Moore, Alvon, 2011. "Demand elasticity of oil in Barbados," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3515-3519, June.
  6. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Electricity demand and conservation potential in the Chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 243-253.
  7. Kim, Hyun Seok & Baek, Jungho, 2013. "Assessing dynamics of crude oil import demand in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 260-263.
  8. Walls, W.D., 2010. "Petroleum refining industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2110-2115, May.
  9. Roberts, Ivan & Rush, Anthony, 2012. "Understanding China's demand for resource imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 566-579.
  10. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:07-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shane Standley).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.