Money stock targeting, base drift, and price-level predictability : Lessons from the U.K. Experience
AbstractIt is controversial whether money stock targeting without base drift (i.e. following a trend-stationary growth path) makes the price level more predictable in the presence of permanent shocks to money demand. Developing a procedure that does not run into the Lucas critique, and applying this procedure to the case of the U.K., the paper finds that the variance of the trend inflation rate in the U.K. would have been reduced by more than one half if the Bank of England had not allowed base drift.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.
Volume (Year): 25 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566
Other versions of this item:
- Michael D. Bordo & Ehsan U. Choudhri & Anna J. Schwartz, 1991. "Money Stock Targeting, Base Drift and Price-Level Predictability: Lessons From the U.K. Experience," NBER Working Papers 2825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1986.
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86-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Goodfriend, Marvin, 1987. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 335-348, May.
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- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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- Bennett T. McCallum, 1982.
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NBER Working Papers
0559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329.
- Walsh, Carl E, 1986. "In Defense of Base Drift," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 692-700, September.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- William Poole, 1976. "Interpreting the Fed's Monetary Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 247-260.
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