Money Stock Targeting, Base Drift and Price-Level Predictability: Lessons From the U.K. Experience
It is controversial whether money stock targeting without base drift (i.e. following a trend-stationary growth path) makes the price level more predictable in the presence of permanent shocks to money demand. Developing a procedure that does not run into the Lucas critique, and applying this procedure to the case of the U.K., the paper finds that the variance of the trend inflation rate in the U.K. would have been reduced by more than one half if the Bank of England had not allowed base drift.
|Date of creation:||Jan 1989|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 25, No. 21, pp. 253-272, (March 1990).|
|Note:||EFG ME ITI IFM|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1980.
"Price Level Determinacy with an Interest Rate Policy Rule and Rational Expectations,"
NBER Working Papers
0559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1987.
"Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity,"
87-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Goodfriend, Marvin, 1987. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 335-348, May.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1986. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Working Paper 86-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Walsh, Carl E, 1986. "In Defense of Base Drift," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 692-700, September.
- Alfred Broaddus & Marvin Goodfriend, 1985.
"Base drift and the longer run growth of M1 : experience from a decade of monetary targeting,"
85-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Alfred Broaddus & Marvin Goodfriend, 1984. "Base drift and the longer run growth of M1 : experience from a decade of monetary targeting," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 3-14.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Friedman, Milton, 1982. "Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 98-118, February.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987.
"Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
- William Poole, 1976. "Interpreting the Fed's Monetary Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 247-260.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2825. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.