Money stock targeting, base drift, and price-level predictability : Lessons from the U.K. Experience
It is controversial whether money stock targeting without base drift (i.e. following a trend-stationary growth path) makes the price level more predictable in the presence of permanent shocks to money demand. Developing a procedure that does not run into the Lucas critique, and applying this procedure to the case of the U.K., the paper finds that the variance of the trend inflation rate in the U.K. would have been reduced by more than one half if the Bank of England had not allowed base drift.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1981.
"Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1980. "Price Level Determinacy with an Interest Rate Policy Rule and Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William Poole, 1976. "Interpreting the Fed's Monetary Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 247-260.
- Walsh, Carl E, 1986. "In Defense of Base Drift," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 692-700, September.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991.
"Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate King, Plosser, Stock, Watson AER 1991 results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00107, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Goodfriend, Marvin, 1987.
"Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 335-348, May.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1987. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Working Paper 87-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1986. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Working Paper 86-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
- Alfred Broaddus & Marvin Goodfriend, 1985.
"Base drift and the longer run growth of M1 : experience from a decade of monetary targeting,"
85-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Alfred Broaddus & Marvin Goodfriend, 1984. "Base drift and the longer run growth of M1 : experience from a decade of monetary targeting," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 3-14.
- Friedman, Milton, 1982. "Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 98-118, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:25:y:1990:i:2:p:253-272. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.