IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v14y2021i11p529-d673590.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Investigation into the Sources of Depreciations in Mongolian Tugrik Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gunbileg Ganbayar

    (Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Saitama University, 225 Shimo-Okubo, Sakura-ku, Saitama 338-8570, Japan
    Department of Finance, Business School, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 214192, Mongolia)

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the sources of fluctuations in real and nominal Mongolian Tugrik (MNT) exchange rates by estimating the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model over the period January 1994–May 2021 and decomposing the exchange rate series into stochastic components induced by real and nominal shocks under the assumption of the long-run neutrality of nominal shocks on the real exchange rate level. The empirical results show that the real MNT exchange rate movements are primarily due to the real shocks, while the nominal shocks have a major role in explaining nominal exchange rate movements in the short and long run. The nominal exchange rate shows a delayed over-shooting occurring between one and three years after a nominal shock hits the economy. The long-run effect of a monthly one standard deviation nominal shock on nominal MNT exchange rate is 2.5%, which results in a permanent divergence between real and nominal MNT exchange rate and causes non-cointegrated relation between real and nominal MNT exchange rates. The historical decomposition of forecast error indicates that the nominal shock plays a significant role in explaining the depreciation in nominal MNT exchange rate over the last three decades. Our recommendation is to stop “cash handling” policy, minimize monetary shock, and coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to avoid large nominal depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunbileg Ganbayar, 2021. "An Investigation into the Sources of Depreciations in Mongolian Tugrik Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:11:p:529-:d:673590
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/11/529/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/11/529/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2020. "Monetary Policy Rule and Taylor Principle by GMM and DSGE Approaches: The Case of Mongolia," MPRA Paper 104182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Real exchange-rate variability under pegged and floating nominal exchange-rate systems: An equilibrium theory," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 259-294, January.
    4. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    5. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    6. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-539, August.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    10. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Ganbayar Gunbileg, 2020. "Monetary Policy Rule and Taylor Principle in Mongolia: GMM and DSGE Approaches," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-16, November.
    11. Eisa Aleisa & Sel Dibooĝlu, 2002. "Sources of real exchange rate movements in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 101-110, March.
    12. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January.
    13. Gunbileg Ganbayar, 2021. "Analysis of External Debt Sustainability in Mongolia: an Estimated DSGE Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    14. Tomoe Moore & Eric J. Pentecost, 2006. "The Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 9-23, July.
    15. H. Batsuuri, 2015. "Original Sin: Is Mongolia Facing an External Debt Crisis?," The Northeast Asian Economic Review, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia, vol. 3(2), pages 3-15, October.
    16. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    17. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2019. "Real exchange rate and asymmetric shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 232-249.
    3. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1996. "Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 69-87.
    4. Jorge Herrera Hernández & Ramón A. Castillo Ponce, 2003. "Trends and cycles: How important are long- and short-run restictions? The case of Mexico," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 18(1), pages 133-155.
    5. Yoonbai Kim, 1997. "How Real are Real Exchange Rates?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 87-108.
    6. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    7. Daniel, Betty C., 1997. "International interdependence of national growth rates: A structural trends anakysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 73-96, September.
    8. Rita D'Ecclesia & Mauro Costantini, 2006. "Comovements and correlations in international stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 567-582.
    9. Bingcheng Yan & Eric Zivot, 2007. "A Structural Analysis of Price Discovery Measures," Working Papers UWEC-2006-08-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    10. Mark S. Astley & Anthony Garratt, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Prices: Sources of Sterling Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations 1973–94," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 491-509, September.
    11. Seiha Ok & Makoto Kakinaka & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2010. "Real Shock Or Nominal Shock? Exchange Rate Movements In Cambodia And Lao Pdr," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(04), pages 685-703.
    12. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    14. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    15. Qizilbash, M., 1995. "Egalitarian justice, capability and well-being prospects," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9516, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    16. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    17. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David, 2013. "An empirical test of exogenous versus endogenous growth models for the G-7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 262-272.
    18. Grau, Aaron Stephan Alexander & Hockmann, Heinrich, 2017. "Estimating oligopsony power on two vertically integrated markets," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261277, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
    20. Márcio Antônio Salvato & João Victor Issler & Angelo Mont'alverne Duarte, 2005. "Are Business Cycles All Alike In Europe?," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 031, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:11:p:529-:d:673590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.