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The Impact of Monetary Targeting in the United States: 1976-1984

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  • Carl E. Walsh

Abstract

This paper attempts to assess empirically the impact on output and inflation of monetary policy in the U-S. during the period of M1 targeting from 1976 to 1984. The impact of policy shocks on output and inflation, and the impact of aggregate demand, aggregate supply and money demand shocks on M1 and the Fed's target path, are examined through the use of impulse response functions. These response functions are based on an orthogonalization of VAR residuals derived from an estimated structural model. The VAR specification reflects the finding that M1 and the Fed's target for M1 are cointegrated. The evidence suggests that money supply shocks and shocks to M1 target have accounted for little of the observed volatility of output or inflation. However, the induced policy response to aggregate demand and supply shocks has contributed to subsequent inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2384.

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Date of creation: Sep 1987
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Publication status: published as Walsh, Carl E. "Monetary Targeting And Inflation: 1976-1984." FRB San Francisco - Economic Review (Winter 1987): 5-16.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2384

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  1. Gould, J. P. & Miller, M. H. & Nelson, C. R. & Upton, C. W., 1978. "The stochastic properties of velocity and the quantity theory of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 229-248, April.
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  4. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1987. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 335-348, May.
  5. William Poole, 1976. "Interpreting the Fed's Monetary Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 247-260.
  6. McCallum, Bennett T, 1985. "On Consequences and Criticisms of Monetary Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 570-97, November.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Meltzer, A.H. & Heinemann, H.E. & Jordan, J.L. & Levy, M.D. & Plosser, C.I. & Poole, W. & Rasche, R.H. & Schwartz, A.J., 1991. "Shadow Open Market Committee; Policy Statement and Position Papers," Papers ip_91-01, Rochester, Business - Industry Policy Studies.
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Friedman, Milton, 1982. "Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 98-118, February.
  12. Roley, V Vance & Walsh, Carl E, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1011-39, Supp..
  13. Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Testing for Real Effects of Monetary Policy Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 2116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bennett T. McCallum, 1984. "Credibility and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  16. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Walsh, Carl E, 1986. "In Defense of Base Drift," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 692-700, September.
  18. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  19. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Interest-Rate Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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