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Trends, cycles and lost decades: Decomposition from a DSGE model with endogenous growth

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  • Hasumi, Ryo
  • Iiboshi, Hirokuni
  • Nakamura, Daisuke

Abstract

In this paper we incorporate endogenous productivity growth into a medium-scale new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, to which a new shock regarding R&D activities is added. By matching the model parameters to the Japanese economy from 1980:Q2 to 2013:Q4 and decomposing the output into trend and cycle components, we find that the stagnation of the so-called lost decades was caused by a decline in economic growth as well as major recessions in the business cycle. The common trend estimated by our model is based on multiple time series data and is much more volatile than the trend extracted by either the Hodrick–Prescott or the band-pass filter.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2018. "Trends, cycles and lost decades: Decomposition from a DSGE model with endogenous growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 9-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:46:y:2018:i:c:p:9-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2018.02.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Satoshi Urasawa, 2018. "Structural Change and Business Cycles in Japan: Revisiting the Stylized Facts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(2), pages 243-281, November.
    2. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Soma, Naoto, 2019. "Inflation target and anchor of inflation forecasts in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 154-170.
    3. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2022. "Looking from Gross Domestic Income: Alternative view of Japan’s economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Mikio Ishiwatari & Daisuke Sasaki, 2022. "Disaster Risk Reduction Funding: Investment Cycle for Flood Protection in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Haykaz Igityan & Hovhannes Manukyan, 2020. "Fitting Armenian Data to the Simple DSGE Model with Permanent Productivity Growth," Working Papers 14, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    6. Felipe, Jesus & Estrada, Gemma, 2020. "What happened to the world's potential growth after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Hirschbühl, Dominik & Spitzer, Martin, 2021. "International medium-term business cycles," Working Paper Series 2536, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous TFP growth; New Keynesian DSGE; Trend shift; Technological change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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