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News and consumer card payments

Author

Listed:
  • Guerino Ardizzi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Simone Emiliozzi

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Juri Marcucci

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Libero Monteforte

    (Bank of Italy and Parliamentary Budget Office)

Abstract

We exploit a unique daily data set on debit card expenditures to study the reaction of consumers to daily news relating to Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU). Payments with debit cards are a proxy for consumption in the quarterly national accounts. Using big data techniques we construct daily EPU indexes, using either articles from Bloomberg news-wire or tweets from Twitter. Our empirical analysis at high frequency required estimates of daily seasonal components, finding strong patterns both within the week and within the month. Using local projections we find that daily shocks to EPU temporarily reduce debit card purchases, especially during the recent crisis; the main results are confirmed using monthly data and controlling for financial uncertainty and macroeconomic surprises. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty affects the ratio between ATM withdrawals and debit card purchases, signaling an increase in households' preference for cash.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerino Ardizzi & Simone Emiliozzi & Juri Marcucci & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "News and consumer card payments," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1233, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1233_19
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    1. Aprigliano, Valentina & Emiliozzi, Simone & Guaitoli, Gabriele & Luciani, Andrea & Marcucci, Juri & Monteforte, Libero, 2023. "The power of text-based indicators in forecasting Italian economic activity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 791-808.
    2. Guerino Ardizzi & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco, 2020. "A game changer in payment habits: evidence from daily data during a pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 591, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption; payment system; policy uncertainty; big data; daily seasonality; local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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