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The Impact of the Euro on International Stability and Volatility

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  • Stefan Gerlach
  • Mathias Hoffmann

Abstract

We investigate the impact of EMU on macroeconomic volatility. The volatilities of inflation and nominal interest rates have declined, as has, more importantly, the volatility of real consumption growth. Since global volatility has fallen for reasons unrelated to EMU (the “great moderationâ€), we focus on the volatilities of bilateral differences in growth rates (or changes). Pairs of EMU countries have experienced the greatest fall in consumption volatility, followed by pairs in which one country is an EMU member. We demonstrate that these findings are closely linked to changes in consumption risk sharing. Overall, EMU has made a difference.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 309.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0309

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Keywords: Gerlach; Hoffmann; EMU; macroeconomic volatility; euro;

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References

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  1. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," NBER Working Papers 9292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael J. Artis & Mathias Hoffmann, 2007. "Financial Globalization, International Business Cycles, and Consumption Risk Sharing," IEW - Working Papers 346, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  3. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 29, 8.
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Artis, Michael J. & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006. "The Home Bias and Capital Income Flows between Countries and Regions," Technical Reports 2006,13, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  6. Sorensen, B-E & Yosha, O, 1996. "International Risk Sharing and European Monetary Unification," Papers 40-96, Tel Aviv.
  7. Fabio Panetta & Paolo Angelini & Giuseppe Grande & Aviram Levy & Roberto Perli & Pinar Yesin & Stefan Gerlach & Srichander Ramaswamy & Michela Scatigna, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 2, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
  10. Sorensen, Bent E. & Wu, Yi-Tsung & Yosha, Oved & Zhu, Yu, 2007. "Home bias and international risk sharing: Twin puzzles separated at birth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 587-605, June.
  11. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2007. "How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels," IZA Discussion Papers 2903, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 258-270, July.
  14. Becker, Sascha O. & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006. "Intra- and international risk-sharing in the short run and the long run," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 777-806, April.
  15. Artis, Michael J & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2007. "Declining Home Bias and the Increase in International Risk Sharing: Lessons from European Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 6617, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Gerlach, Stefan, 1999. "Who targets inflation explicitly?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1257-1277, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Has the Euro changed the business cycle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-211.
  2. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:162:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Agustin Benetrix, 2010. "International Risk Sharing and the Irish Economy," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp343, IIIS.
  4. Claudia M. Buch, 2012. "From the Stability Pact to ESM - What next?," IAW Discussion Papers 85, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).

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