Financial Globalization, International Business Cycles and Consumption Risk Sharing
AbstractIn spite of two decades of financial globalization, consumption-based indicators do not seem to signal more international risk sharing. We argue that the fraction of idiosyncratic consumption risk that gets shared among industrialized countries has actually increased considerably over the period 1980-2000 and, in particular, during the 1990s-from around 30 to more than 60 percent. However, standard consumption-based measures of risk sharing-such as the volatility of consumption conditional on output or international consumption correlations-have been unable to detect this increase because consumption has also been affected by the concurrent decline in the volatility of output growth in most industrialized countries since the 1980s. First, the volatility of output at business-cycle frequencies has declined by more than has the volatility of permanent fluctuations. Since consumption reacts mainly to permanent shocks, it appears more volatile in relation to current changes in output. This effect seems to have offset the tendency of financial globalization to lower the volatility of consumption conditional on output. Second, because the variability of permanent global shocks has also fallen, international consumption correlations have also generally not increased as financial markets have become more integrated. Copyright � The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics" 2008 .
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
Volume (Year): 110 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
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Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9442
Other versions of this item:
- Michael J. Artis & Mathias Hoffmann, 2007. "Financial Globalization, International Business Cycles, and Consumption Risk Sharing," IEW - Working Papers 346, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Artis, Michael J & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2004. "Financial Globalization, International Business Cycles and Consumption Risk Sharing," CEPR Discussion Papers 4697, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
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