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Financial Globalization, International Business Cycles, and Consumption Risk Sharing

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Michael J. Artis
Mathias Hoffmann

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Abstract

In spite of two decades of financial globalization, consumption-based indicators do not seem to signal more international risk sharing. We argue that consumption risk sharing among industrialised countries has actually increased - in particular since the 1990s - but that standard consumption-based measures of risk sharing - such as the volatility of consumption conditional on output or international consumption correlations - have been unable to detect this increase. The reason is that consumption has also been affected by the concurrent decline in the volatility of output growth in most industrialised countries since the 1980s. As a first important driver of this decline we identify a more gradual response of output to permanent idiosyncratic shocks. Since consumption reacts mainly to permanent shocks, it appears more volatile in relation to current changes in output. This effect seems to have offset the tendency of financial globalization to lower the volatility of consumption conditional on output. Secondly, because the variability of permanent global shocks has also fallen, international consumption correlations have also generally not increased as financial markets have become more integrated.

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Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW in its series IEW - Working Papers with number iewwp346.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:346

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Keywords: Consumption Risk Sharing; International Business Cycles; Great Moderation; Financial Integration and Capital Flows; Home Bias;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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  1. Pot Erik & Flesch János & Peeters Ronald & Vermeulen Dries, 2009. "Dynamic Competition with Consumer Inertia," Research Memoranda 037, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  2. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2009. "Banks, Financial Markets and International Consumption Risk Sharing," Economics working papers 2009-14, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Akito Matsumoto & Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 2009. "International Risk Sharing During the Globalization Era," IMF Working Papers 09/209, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ventura, Luigi, 2008. "Risk sharing opportunities and macroeconomic factors in Latin American and Caribbean countries : A consumption insurance assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4490, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fratzscher, Marcel & Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Risk Sharing, Finance and Institutions in International Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 6496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Mathias Hoffmann & Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Securitization of Mortgage Debt, Asset Prices and International Risk Sharing," IEW - Working Papers iewwp376, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2008. "Reconsidering Consumption Risk Sharing among OECD Countries: Some Evidence Based on Panel Cointegration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 493-505, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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