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Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana

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Author Info
Eliana González Molano ()
Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia ()
Anderson Grajales Olarte ()

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Abstract

En países como Colombia en donde se sigue una estrategia de inflación objetivo es fundamental para el Banco Central contar con buenos modelos para pronosticar la inflación. En este documento se comparan los pronósticos de inflación obtenidos a partir de un modelo de Curva de Phillips usando dos metodologías diferentes: pronósticos directos y pronósticos iterativos (tradicionales) para una muestra trimestral entre 1988 y 2007. Los pronósticos directos están basados en estimaciones OLS, mientras que los iterativos lo están en estimaciones tanto por OLS como por mínimos cuadrados flexibles. Los resultados encontrados muestran que al utilizar el mismo método de estimación, OLS, el error de pronóstico de la metodología directa es menor que el de la iterativa en el mediano plazo. Sin embargo, los pronósticos iterativos generados con la metodología de mínimos cuadrados flexibles superan a los directos - OLS.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 004247.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004247

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  3. R. Bhansali, 1996. "Asymptotically efficient autoregressive model selection for multistep prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 577-602, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., . "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "VAR forecasting under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 99-136, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Pablo Querubín, . "La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 199, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ing, Ching-Kang, 2003. "Multistep Prediction In Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 254-279, April. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kalaba, R. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2004. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  12. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 447, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  13. Enrique López & Martha Misas, . "Un Exámen Empírico de la Curva de Phillips en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 117, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, . "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2007. "Euro area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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