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El Dinero como Indicador Líder

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  • Se Kyu Choi-Ha
  • Luis Felipe Lagos

    (Instituto de Economía)

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    Abstract

    For policy makers and business cycles analysts is important to count on variables that anticipate points of inflection in economic activity. This paper studies aggregate real money balances as leader indicator of the economic activity based on a Probit mo

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 120 ()
    Pages: 259-283

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    Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:40:y:2003:i:120:p:259-283

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    Related research

    Keywords: Money; leading indicator; probit model; granger-type casuality tests; cointegration;

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    References

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    1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    2. Raphael Bergoeing & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy," Documentos de Trabajo 126, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    3. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," NBER Technical Working Papers 0217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    5. Dufour, J.M. & Renault, E., 1995. "Short-Run and Long-Rub Causality in Time Series: Theory," Cahiers de recherche 9538, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    6. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
    9. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
    10. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Another Look at the Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 3856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    13. Krol, Robert & Ohanian, Lee E., 1990. "The impact of stochastic and deterministic trends on money-output causality : A multi-country investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 291-308.
    14. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
    15. Eduardo Walker, 1998. "Mercado Accionario y Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(104), pages 49-72.
    16. Covey, Ted & Bessler, David A, 1992. "Testing for Granger's Full Causality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 146-53, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Pablo García, & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2004. "Monetarism Beyond M1A," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 262, Central Bank of Chile.

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