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Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine

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  • Marc-André Gosselin
  • René Lalonde
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    Abstract

    In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. For instance, they model and measure the elasticities of imports and exports to changes in the exchange rate and income. PAC models provide a theoretical justification for the presence of lags within a dynamic equation where optimizing agents' expectations are completely rational and forward looking. This approach thereby adds theoretical depth to a model that has a good forecasting performance. To the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first study to model the U.S. trade sector using a PAC approach. Overall, the models' main elasticities are reasonable. Moreover, the authors find that the out-ofsample forecasting performance of their PAC models is at least as good as that of other models. Their results show that this theoretical structure is not added at the expense of the empirical features of the models.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 04-3.

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    Length: 43 pages
    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-3

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    Related research

    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; International topics; Domestic demand and components;

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    References

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    1. P.A. Tinsley, 1993. "Fitting both data and theories: polynomial adjustment costs and error- correction decision rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1988. "Adjustment costs and international trade dynamics," International Finance Discussion Papers 321, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Marquez, Jaime, 1999. "Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 102-16, February.
    6. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
    7. F. Brayton & P. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2002. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel américain," Working Papers 02-36, Bank of Canada.
    9. Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
    10. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 1999. "Vector rational error correction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1299-1327, September.
    11. Caroline L. Freund, 2000. "Current account adjustment in industrialized countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 692, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Keith Head & John Ries, 1998. "Immigration and Trade Creation: Econometric Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 47-62, February.
    13. Gould, David M, 1994. "Immigrant Links to the Home Country: Empirical Implications for U.S. Bilateral Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 302-16, May.
    14. Krugman, P., 1993. "What Do We Need to Know About the International Monetary System?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 190, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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