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Component structures of agricultural commodity futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange

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Author Info

  • Ramaprasad Bhar

    ()

  • Shigeyuki Hamori

    ()

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a discrete version of the short-term and long-term component model of the agricultural futures prices. The maximum likelihood estimate of each parameter is obtained using an adaptive filtering algorithm. The diagnostics statistically support the specification of the model. The short-term components exhibit no causal relationship with economic fundamentals such as inflation rate and economic growth rate. These components, therefore, seem to be driven mainly by fads rather than market fundamentals. On the other hand, the long-term components show conitegrating relationship with only one cointegrating vector among the three futures contracts examined. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10690-007-9032-2
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Asia-Pacific Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 1-9

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Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:13:y:2006:i:1:p:1-9

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Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102851

Related research

Keywords: Agricultural futures; Kalman filter; Fads; G12;

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References

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  1. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-89, December.
  2. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
  3. G. Geoffrey Booth & Paul Brockman & Yiuman Tse, 1998. "The relationship between US and Canadian wheat futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 73-80.
  4. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: some further evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 535-539.
  5. G. Geoffrey Booth & Cetin Ciner, 2001. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 311-313.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
  7. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
  8. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, December.
  9. Peter Wickham & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/7, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jian Yang & Michael Haigh & David Leatham, 2001. "Agricultural liberalization policy and commodity price volatility: a GARCH application," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(9), pages 593-598.
  11. Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz & Gerhard Runstler, 1999. "Interest rate differentials, market integration, and the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 101-108.
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Cited by:
  1. Yasuyuki Itoh, 2007. "A Class of Gaussian Hybrid Processes for Modeling Financial Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 185-199, September.

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