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International Portfolio Holdings and Swiss Franc Asset Returns

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Author Info
Kugler, Peter
Weder di Mauro, Beatrice

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Abstract

This Paper revisits the puzzle of low returns on Swiss franc assets using a new dataset of international portfolio holdings at Swiss banks. The main findings are as follows. First, we find that the return anomaly is present only for fixed income assets and not for equity. Second, it is mostly due to a long run deviation from uncovered interest rate parity, not a deviation from purchasing power parity. Third, it is unlikely that foreign demand for Swiss assets (possibly due to banking secrecy) is driving down returns: this demand is quantitatively small especially for Swiss franc fixed income instruments. A dynamic factor analysis confirms that foreign demand had almost no impact on Swiss franc asset prices. Finally, we propose a new explanation for low returns on Swiss fixed income assets, namely the diversification benefits offered by these instruments. Applying reversed portfolio optimization to back out the implied returns reveals that the estimated pattern of this returns conforms very well to the observed pattern.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4467.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4467

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Related research
Keywords: asset returns; portfolio choice; switzerland;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Christian Dreger & Christian Schumacher, 2003. "Are Real Interest Rates Cointegrated? Further evidence based on paneleconometric methods," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(I), pages 41-53, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kugler, Peter & Weder, Beatrice, 2002. "The Puzzle of the Swiss Interest Rate Island: Stylized Facts and a New Interpretation," Discussion Paper Series 26190, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-304, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. " Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Modjtahedi, Bagher, 1988. "Dynamics of real interest differentials : An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1191-1211, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  8. Fountas, Stilianos & Wu, Jyh-lin, 1999. "Testing for Real Interest Rate Convergence in European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 158-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kugler, Peter & Neusser, K, 1993. "International Real Interest Rate Equalization: A Multivariate Time-Series Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 163-74, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2007. "Safe Haven Currencies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Daniel Kohler, 2007. "Carry Trades: Betting Against Safe Haven," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-12, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christoph Sax, 2006. "Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Movements: Analyzing Short-term Investments in Long-term Bonds," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 205-220, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nicolas Stoffels & Cédric Tille, 2007. "Why are Switzerland's foreign assets so low? The growing financial exposure of a small open economy," Staff Reports 283, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  5. Weder, Beatrice & Weder, Rolf, 2009. "Switzerland.s Rise to a Wealthy Nation: Competition and Contestability as Key Success Factors," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  6. Hausmann, Ricardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2006. "Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations," Working Paper Series rwp06-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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