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Model Hybrid for Sales Forecast for the Housing Market of São Paulo

Author

Listed:
  • Moro Matheus Fernando

    (Department of Production Engineering and Systems, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil)

  • Weise Andreas Dittmar

    (Department of Industrial Engineering,Hochschule 21, Harburger, Germany)

  • Bornia Antonio Cezar

    (Department of Production Engineering and Systems, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil)

Abstract

This research proposes a combined model of time series for forecasting housing sales in the city of São Paulo. We used data referring to the time series of sales of residential units provided by SECOVI-SP. The Exponential Softening, Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Networks models are individually modelled, later these are combined through five forecast combination techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Moro Matheus Fernando & Weise Andreas Dittmar & Bornia Antonio Cezar, 2020. "Model Hybrid for Sales Forecast for the Housing Market of São Paulo," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(3), pages 45-64, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:remava:v:28:y:2020:i:3:p:45-64:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/remav-2020-0023
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Dua, Pami & Miller, Stephen M & Smyth, David J, 1999. "Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-205, March.
    5. Michael Ball & Anupam Nanda, 2013. "Household attributes and the future demand for retirement housing," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(1), pages 45-62, March.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real estate market; sales forecast; real estate management; analysis of real estate; forecast combination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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