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The changing nature of the U.S. economic influence in the World

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  • Fernández, Adriana Z.
  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex

Abstract

We argue that the U.S.-led global recession revealed a change in the nature of the U.S. economic influence over the world, evidenced by the unusual delay between the U.S. downturn and its full manifestation in other economies. To validate our argument we conduct a real-time analysis of the evolution of the U.S. business cycles' influence over other countries' business cycles from 1960 to 2007. Our findings suggest that since the early 1980s, cyclical movements in the U.S. economy affect other economies with a lag, rather than contemporaneously. There seems to be an increasing delay between a U.S. downturn and its full manifestation in other economies, suggesting that the U.S. economic influence is still strong but more delayed than before.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 196-209

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:2:p:196-209

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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Keywords: Business cycle Business fluctuations Decoupling International business cycles;

References

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  1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  3. Mark W. Watson, 2007. "How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 143-161.
  4. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, July.
  5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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