Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors

Contents:

Author Info

  • Amihud, Yakov
  • Hurvich, Clifford M.
  • Wang, Yi

Abstract

Studies of predictive regressions analyze the case where yt is predicted by xt - 1 with xt being first-order autoregressive, AR(1). Under some conditions, the OLS-estimated predictive coefficient is known to be biased. We analyze a predictive model where yt is predicted by xt - 1, xt - 2,... xt - p with xt being autoregressive of order p, AR(p) with p > 1. We develop a generalized augmented regression method that produces a reduced-bias point estimate of the predictive coefficients and derive an appropriate hypothesis testing procedure. We apply our method to the prediction of quarterly stock returns by dividend yield, which is apparently AR(2). Using our method results in the AR(2) predictor series having insignificant effect, although under OLS, or the commonly assumed AR(1) structure, the predictive model is significant. We also generalize our method to the case of multiple AR(p) predictors.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFG-4Y3TX6M-2/2/43495f1abb8444a26755bd2844ebba62
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 513-525

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:513-525

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

Related research

Keywords: Autoregressive Augmented regression method (ARM);

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2004. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," NBER Technical Working Papers 0303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  3. Campbell, Bryan & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 151-73, February.
  4. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June.
  5. Yakov Amihud & Clifford Hurvich, 2004. "Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method," Econometrics 0412008, EconWPA.
  6. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2006. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 1-44.
  7. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  8. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  9. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1414, 08.
  10. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. " Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-72, December.
  11. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
  13. Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
  14. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
  15. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  17. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  18. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-60, May.
  19. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "The Liquidity Effect and Long-Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 6608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Chen, Willa W. & Deo, Rohit S., 2009. "Bias Reduction And Likelihood-Based Almost Exactly Sized Hypothesis Testing In Predictive Regressions Using The Restricted Likelihood," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(05), pages 1143-1179, October.
  21. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2012. "Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-253.
  2. Eiji Kurozumi & Kohei Aono, 2011. "Estimation and Inference in Predictive Regressions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-192, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:513-525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.