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Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors

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  • Nelson Mark

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame)

Abstract

Factor analysis performed on a panel of 23 nominal exchange rates from January 1999 to December 2010 yields three common factors. This paper identifies the euro/dollar, Swiss- franc/dollar and yen/dollar exchange rates as empirical counterparts to these common factors. These empirical factors explain a large proportion of exchange rate variation over time and have significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power.

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File URL: http://www3.nd.edu/~tjohns20/RePEc/deendus/wpaper/011_factors.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 011.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision: Mar 2012
Handle: RePEc:nod:wpaper:011

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Postal: 434 Flanner Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556
Phone: (574) 631-7698
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Web page: http://economics.nd.edu
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Keywords: Exchange Rates; Common Factors; Forecasting;

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References

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  1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
  2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1128, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Groen, Jan J J, 2005. "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 495-516, June.
  5. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  10. Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Jan J. J. Groen, 1999. "Long horizon predictability of exchange rates: Is it for real?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 451-469.
  12. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Han, Chirok & Sul, Donggyu, 2012. "Asymptotic distribution of factor augmented estimators for panel regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 48-53.
  13. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  14. Nelson Mark, 2008. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," Working Papers 012, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2012.
  15. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, 07.
  16. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Jose Luiz Rossi Jr & Wilson Felíci, 2014. "Common Factors And The Exchange Rate: Results From The Brazilian Case," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 125, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  2. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  3. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2014. "The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements," Insper Working Papers wpe_332, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.

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