Investigating effects of oil price changes on the US, the UK and Japan
AbstractBased on the structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Kilian(2009), this article investigates the causes for wild fluctuations in oil prices since the mid-2000s. A main contribution of the study is to compare the effects of changes in oil price on three major economies, the US, the UK, and Japan. I find oil-specific demand shocks as well as aggregate demand shocks played an important role in the rise in the real price of oil since early 2002 and the subsequent sharp drops after the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.. Moreover I have found that oil-specific demand shocks increase real GDP in Japan, which is very different from the US and the UK where oil-specific demand shocks lead to reduction in real GDP. This difference possibly comes from the oil efficiency of Japanese products.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 31 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
SVAR; Oil price;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
- Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004.
"Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002.
"Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006.
"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010.
"What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
- Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.