Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU countries after the Euro
AbstractIn this paper we introduce new definitions of pairwise and multivariate similarity between short-run dynamics of inflation rates in terms of equality of forecast functions and show that in the context of invertible ARIMA processes the Autoregressive distance introduced by Piccolo (1990) is a useful measure to evaluate such similarity. Then, we study the similarity of shortrun inflation dynamics across EU-15 area countries during the Euro period. Consistent with studies on inflation differentials and inflation persistence, our findings suggest that after seven years from the launch of the Euro the degree of similarity of short-run inflation dynamics across EU countries is still weak.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali in its series Working Papers with number 289.
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Euro; autoregressive metric; inflation dynamics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-07-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-07-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2007-07-13 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-07-13 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-07-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-07-13 (Monetary Economics)
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