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Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical model with conditional heteroskedasticity

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  • Lucchetti, Riccardo
  • Palomba, Giulio

Abstract

Starting from the work by Campbell and Shiller (Campbell, J.Y. and Shiller, R.J. (1987). Cointegration and tests of present value models. Journal of Political Economy, 95(5):1062-1088.), empirical analysis of interest rates has been conducted in the framework of cointegration. However, parts of this approach have been questioned recently, as the adjustment mechanism may not follow a simple linear rule; another line of criticism points out that stationarity of the spreads is difficult to maintain empirically. In this paper, we analyse data on US bond yields by means of an augmented VAR specification which approximates a generic nonlinear adjustment model. We argue that nonlinearity captures macro information via the shape of the yield curve and thus provides an alternative explanation for some findings that recently appeared in the literature. Moreover, we show how conditional heteroskedasticity can be taken into account via GARCH specifications for the conditional variance, either univariate or multivariate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 659-667

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:659-667

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Interest rates Cointegration Nonlinear adjustment Conditional heteroskedasticity;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Riccardo Lucchetti, 2009. "Who uses gretl? An Analysis of the SourceForge Download Data," EHUCHAPS, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.

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