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Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price

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Author Info
Lo, Ming Chien
Zivot, Eric

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Abstract

Previous studies investigating threshold behavior in real-exchange-rate and price difference data have used rather ad hoc statistical methods and have focused on univariate threshold models for relative prices. We utilize a general multivariate threshold cointegration model and develop a systematic testing and estimation strategy for this model, building on the work of others. Using Monte Carlo experiments, we systematically compare the use of univariate and multivariate techniques for testing threshold cointegration, estimating various threshold models, and testing specifications. We apply our methodology to a large set of U.S. disaggregated CPI data. We find evidence of threshold cointegration mainly for tradable goods. However, the type of threshold nonlinearity that we find generally does not support the transaction-cost view of commodity arbitrage.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S1365100501023057
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2001)
Issue (Month): 04 (September)
Pages: 533-576
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:04:p:533-576_02

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1998. "Relative Price Volatility: What Role Does the Border Play?," Working Papers 0061, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Convergence to the Law of One Price without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1211-36, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-19, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
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  9. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Near Unit Root," Departmental Working Papers 9821, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luciana Juvenal & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Threshold adjustment in deviations from the law of one price," Working Papers 2008-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2005. "Partial Cointegration," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2005.04, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "GLS Detrending-Based Unit Root Tests in Nonlinear STAR and SETAR Frameworks," ESE Discussion Papers 108, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  4. Llad Phillips & John Pippenger, 2005. "Some Pitfalls in Testing the Law of One Price in Commodity Markets," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series wp4-05, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
  5. Seung Hyun Hong & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "Testing Linearity in Cointegrating Relations with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1541, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Serineh Najarian & H. L. Leon, 2003. "Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 03/159, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2003. "Is the Budget Deficit Sustainable when Fiscal Policy is nonlinear? The Case of Spain, 1961-2001," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/32, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mauricio Nunes & Sergio Da Silva, 2008. "Explosive and periodically collapsing bubbles in emerging stockmarkets," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(46), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
  9. John Pippenger, 2007. "Strictly Speaking, the Law of One Price Works in Commodity Markets," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 17-07, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
  10. ben Kaabia, Monia & Gil, Jose M., 2005. "Asymetric Price Transmission in the Spanish Lamb Sector," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24631, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  11. Fredj Jawadi & Nicolas Million & Mohamed El Hedi Arouri, 2009. "Stock market integration in the Latin American markets: further evidence from nonlinear modeling," Quantitative Finance Papers 0905.3874, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Myunghwan Seo, 2005. "Unit Root Test in a Threshold Autoregression: Asymptotic Theory and Residual-based Block Bootstrap," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2005/484, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Helmut LÜTKEPOHL, 2004. "Recent Advances in Cointegration Analysis," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/12, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  14. Alfred A. Haug & Syed A. Basher, 2004. "Unit Roots, Nonlinear Cointegration and Purchasing Power Parity," Econometrics 0401006, EconWPA, revised 16 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Unit Root Tests in Three-Regime SETAR Models," ESE Discussion Papers 104, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  16. P.H. Franses & D.J. van Dijk, 2002. "A simple test for PPP among traded goods," Econometric Institute Report 255, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39. [Downloadable!]
  18. Tigran Poghosyan & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Interest Rate Linkages in EMU Countries: A Rolling Threshold Vector Error-Correction Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  19. van Tol, Michel R & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Javier Escobal & Arturo Vásquez, 2005. "Market integration for agricultural output markets in Peru: the role of public infrastructure," Urban/Regional 0507003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  21. Teresa Serra & Barry K. Goodwin, 2003. "Price transmission and asymmetric adjustment in the Spanish dairy sector," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(18), pages 1889-1899, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Frederique Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," RCER Working Papers 509, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  23. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment in US Bond Yields: an Empirical Analysis with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," MPRA Paper 11571, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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