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Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Non-Linear Adjustment

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Author Info
Alberto Montagnoli
Andros Gregoriou
Alexandros Kontonikas

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Abstract

This paper examines the time series properties of inflation differentials in twelve EMU countries. We compute three alternative measures of inflation differentials using deviations from the policy reference value implied by the Maastricht Treaty, the ECB target, and deviations from the EMU average inflation. The evidence from standard linear unit root tests indicate that inflation differentials are highly persistent. However, when we account for endogenously determined structural breaks, we obtain greater support for stationarity. In addition, when we allow for the possibility that inflation differentials can be charterised by a non-linear mean reverting process we find evidence of stationarity. Our empirical results suggest that once we allow for structural breaks or non-linearities, inflation differentials do not consistently intensify real divergence in the euro area

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2007_13.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_13

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Related research
Keywords: EMU; ESTAR models; Inflation; Structural break; Unit root tests;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2006. "Inflation convergence and divergence within the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 574, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Margarida Duarte, 2003. "The euro and inflation divergence in Europe," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-70. [Downloadable!]
  5. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kocenda, Evzen & Papell, David H, 1997. "Inflation Convergence within the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 189-98, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Philip R. Lane & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," Trinity Economics Papers 20034, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Francesco Giavazzi & Alberto Giovannini, 1989. "Can the EMS be Exported? Lessons from Ten Years of Monetary Policy Coordination in Europe," Working Papers 68, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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  10. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Working Paper Series 597, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "Inflation Targeting And The Stationarity Of Inflation: New Results From An Estar Unit Root Test," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 309-322, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary Wójcik, 2006. "Catching-up, Inflation Differentials and Credit Booms in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Some Implications for EMU and new EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  15. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Siklos, Pierre L & Wohar, Mark E, 1997. "Convergence in Interest Rates and Inflation Rates across Countries and over Time," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 129-41, February.
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