Optimal hedging strategy revisited : acknowledging the existence of nonstationary economic timeseries
AbstractRecognizing that a country's commodity prices, foreign exchange rates, and export earnings are related, earlier studies developed an optimal portfolio model based on an integrated approach. But the estimates were inefficient because they summed that the time series data used in the model were stationary. As a result, the model produced unstable solutions that were sensitive to exogenous changes. Many economic time series - include aggregate consumption, national income, exchange rates, interest rates, commodity prices, and volume of trade - are nonstationary (drift over time). A shock to the nonstationary series has a permanent effect. Problems of nonsense regression or spurious regression can rise when performing regression with nonstationary series. To correct the problem, the authors used Engle and Granger's (1987) vector error correction (VEC) specification in the optimal portfolio estimation process. The VEC approach expands the application of the optimal portfolio model to nonstationary economic time series data. They apply the new approach to data for Papua New Guinea in an analysis of optimal hedging of commodity price and exchange rate risks using commodity-linked bonds and varying the mix of foreign-currency-dominated borrowings. They find the time series of commodity prices and foreign exchange rate to be nonstationary. When the VEC approach is applied, the results are comparable to those from the earlier study where the nonstationary was ignored. The optimal portfolio of commodity-linked bonds and foreign currency borrowings derived from the new model shows more significant risk reduction (measured by ex-ante risk reduction) and less sensitivity to changes in assumption about the real interest rate. In addition, establishing the cointegration relationships among the commodity prices and foreign exchange rates makes it easier to develop economic institutions in explaining the composition of the optimal portfolio. TheVEC's most significant advantage, however, is the stability achieved in the optimal portfolio solutions to changes in assumptions because of the superior long-run properties of the cointegration and error-correction representation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1279.
Date of creation: 31 Mar 1994
Date of revision:
Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Insurance&Risk Mitigation; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979.
"Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models,"
127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
- Rudiger Dornbusch, 1987.
"Exchange Rates and Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf, 1985.
"Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
768, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P C B & Durlauf, S N, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 473-95, August.
- Claessens, Stijn & Qian, Ying, 1991. "Risk management in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 593, The World Bank.
- West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
- Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.