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Firm Volatility in Granular Networks

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  • Bryan Kelly
  • Hanno Lustig
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

We propose a network model of firm volatility in which the customers’ growth rate shocks influence the growth rates of their suppliers, larger suppliers have more customers, and the strength of a customer-supplier link depends on the size of the customer firm. Even though all shocks are i.i.d., the network model produces firm-level volatility and size distribution dynamics that are consistent with the data. In the cross section, larger firms and firms with less concentrated customer networks display lower volatility. Over time, the volatilities of all firms co-move strongly, and their common factor is concentration of the economy-wide firm size distribution. Network effects are essential to explaining the joint evolution of the empirical firm size and firm volatility distributions.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19466.

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Date of creation: Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19466

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Cited by:
  1. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle M�jean, . "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 630, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  2. Takayuki Mizuno & Wataru Souma & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks," CARF F-Series CARF-F-339, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  3. Mizuno, Takayuki & Souma, Wataru & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2014. "The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks," Working Paper Series 27, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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