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Multi-Horizon Forecasting for Limit Order Books: Novel Deep Learning Approaches and Hardware Acceleration using Intelligent Processing Units

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  • Zihao Zhang
  • Stefan Zohren

Abstract

We design multi-horizon forecasting models for limit order book (LOB) data by using deep learning techniques. Unlike standard structures where a single prediction is made, we adopt encoder-decoder models with sequence-to-sequence and Attention mechanisms to generate a forecasting path. Our methods achieve comparable performance to state-of-art algorithms at short prediction horizons. Importantly, they outperform when generating predictions over long horizons by leveraging the multi-horizon setup. Given that encoder-decoder models rely on recurrent neural layers, they generally suffer from slow training processes. To remedy this, we experiment with utilising novel hardware, so-called Intelligent Processing Units (IPUs) produced by Graphcore. IPUs are specifically designed for machine intelligence workload with the aim to speed up the computation process. We show that in our setup this leads to significantly faster training times when compared to training models with GPUs.

Suggested Citation

  • Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren, 2021. "Multi-Horizon Forecasting for Limit Order Books: Novel Deep Learning Approaches and Hardware Acceleration using Intelligent Processing Units," Papers 2105.10430, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2105.10430
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2018. "BDLOB: Bayesian Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books," Papers 1811.10041, arXiv.org.
    2. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2010. "Limit Order Books," Papers 1012.0349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    3. Zihao Zhang & Bryan Lim & Stefan Zohren, 2021. "Deep Learning for Market by Order Data," Papers 2102.08811, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    4. James Wallbridge, 2020. "Transformers for Limit Order Books," Papers 2003.00130, arXiv.org.
    5. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    6. Antonio Briola & Jeremy Turiel & Tomaso Aste, 2020. "Deep Learning modeling of Limit Order Book: a comparative perspective," Papers 2007.07319, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    7. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
    8. Zihao Zhang & Bryan Lim & Stefan Zohren, 2021. "Deep Learning for Market by Order Data," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 79-95, January.
    9. Justin Sirignano & Rama Cont, 2019. "Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from deep learning," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1449-1459, September.
    10. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2019. "Extending Deep Learning Models for Limit Order Books to Quantile Regression," Papers 1906.04404, arXiv.org.
    11. Antonio Briola & Jeremy Turiel & Riccardo Marcaccioli & Alvaro Cauderan & Tomaso Aste, 2021. "Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active High Frequency Trading," Papers 2101.07107, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    12. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    13. Rakshit Jha & Mattijs De Paepe & Samuel Holt & James West & Shaun Ng, 2020. "Deep Learning for Digital Asset Limit Order Books," Papers 2010.01241, arXiv.org.
    14. Aiusha Sangadiev & Rodrigo Rivera-Castro & Kirill Stepanov & Andrey Poddubny & Kirill Bubenchikov & Nikita Bekezin & Polina Pilyugina & Evgeny Burnaev, 2020. "DeepFolio: Convolutional Neural Networks for Portfolios with Limit Order Book Data," Papers 2008.12152, arXiv.org.
    15. Adamantios Ntakaris & Martin Magris & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2018. "Benchmark dataset for mid‐price forecasting of limit order book data with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 852-866, December.
    16. Jonathan Sadighian, 2019. "Deep Reinforcement Learning in Cryptocurrency Market Making," Papers 1911.08647, arXiv.org.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Lucchese & Mikko Pakkanen & Almut Veraart, 2022. "The Short-Term Predictability of Returns in Order Book Markets: a Deep Learning Perspective," Papers 2211.13777, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    2. Yufei Wu & Mahmoud Mahfouz & Daniele Magazzeni & Manuela Veloso, 2021. "Towards Robust Representation of Limit Orders Books for Deep Learning Models," Papers 2110.05479, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    3. Alvaro Arroyo & Alvaro Cartea & Fernando Moreno-Pino & Stefan Zohren, 2023. "Deep Attentive Survival Analysis in Limit Order Books: Estimating Fill Probabilities with Convolutional-Transformers," Papers 2306.05479, arXiv.org.
    4. Matteo Prata & Giuseppe Masi & Leonardo Berti & Viviana Arrigoni & Andrea Coletta & Irene Cannistraci & Svitlana Vyetrenko & Paola Velardi & Novella Bartolini, 2023. "LOB-Based Deep Learning Models for Stock Price Trend Prediction: A Benchmark Study," Papers 2308.01915, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    5. Eghbal Rahimikia & Stefan Zohren & Ser-Huang Poon, 2021. "Realised Volatility Forecasting: Machine Learning via Financial Word Embedding," Papers 2108.00480, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    6. Peer Nagy & Jan-Peter Calliess & Stefan Zohren, 2023. "Asynchronous Deep Double Duelling Q-Learning for Trading-Signal Execution in Limit Order Book Markets," Papers 2301.08688, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    7. Hong Guo & Jianwu Lin & Fanlin Huang, 2023. "Market Making with Deep Reinforcement Learning from Limit Order Books," Papers 2305.15821, arXiv.org.
    8. Paul Bilokon & Yitao Qiu, 2023. "Transformers versus LSTMs for electronic trading," Papers 2309.11400, arXiv.org.
    9. Ilia Zaznov & Julian Kunkel & Alfonso Dufour & Atta Badii, 2022. "Predicting Stock Price Changes Based on the Limit Order Book: A Survey," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-33, April.

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